#852 Are We At Economic War? w/ Dylan LeClair

— Commodity prices have surged 30% year-to-date, driven by supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war cutting off 11% of global oil, 17% of natural gas, 11% of wheat, and 10% of industrial minerals.

— Fixed income markets are experiencing severe volatility as bond yields rise with inflation at 40-year highs, forcing investors to dump bonds that no longer keep pace with purchasing power.

— Corporate credit spreads are widening and correlate tightly with equity market volatility, signaling liquidity stress and rising financing costs for companies in an over-indebted economy.

— The yield curve is flattening toward inversion—a recession predictor—while the Fed remains trapped with zero rates and raging inflation, creating a lose-lose policy scenario.

— Bitcoin's on-chain supply shows extreme tightness: 86% of supply hasn't moved in three months, 75% in six months, and 61% in one year—suggesting strong accumulation by long-term holders.

— The geopolitical freezing of Russian sovereign assets and bank account seizures during the Canadian convoy have reinforced Bitcoin's case as a non-sovereign store of value immune to government control.

— Consider stacking Bitcoin while holding cash reserves: Dylan recommends auto-stacking Bitcoin long-term while maintaining a cash position to capitalize on potential liquidity-driven corrections, as fixed income and equity markets show signs of deleveraging stress.

— Monitor the yield curve inversion as a recession warning: When the 10-year/2-year spread inverts, historical precedent suggests recession is imminent; this flattening trend warrants defensive positioning and may create superior Bitcoin entry points.

— Reassess fixed income exposure: Rising financing costs and credit spreads suggest bonds no longer preserve purchasing power in an inflationary environment; reallocation toward hard assets (Bitcoin, commodities, or cash) may be prudent.