Ten31 Timestamp: In It For The Tech

— AI model recursion and self-improvement: Anthropic reports that 80% of new model code is now written by Claude itself, marking progress toward autonomous AI research capabilities with potential exponential economic implications.

— Government and AI alignment: Both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have called for public stakes in leading AI labs; discussion of federal backing for "too big to fail" frontier model companies and compute infrastructure.

— US-China competition and payment rails as economic weapons: Rising US restrictions on Chinese imports, semiconductor competition, and recognition by Canada's central bank that payment systems function as tools of political influence—underscoring Bitcoin's relevance as permissionless money.

— ISM manufacturing PMI above 50: US industrial reindustrialization showing green shoots after three years of contraction, signaling upturn in business investment and potential inflation implications.

— On-chain Bitcoin indicators suggest proximity to bear market bottom: Bitcoin in loss crossing into profit territory; copper-to-gold ratio at prior lows historically precedes 20-month rallies; institutional adoption (Schwab, Coinbase, Fannie Mae) continuing despite bear market pressure.

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signals strategic Bitcoin reserve commitment: Framing digital assets as part of national security and economic security, indicating serious policy intent beyond election-cycle messaging.

— Reassess conviction on Bitcoin's long-term role in an increasingly multipolar world where payment rails are weaponized; holdings in cold storage address geopolitical tail risk as US-China competition intensifies and domestic financial system constraints emerge.

— Monitor institutional adoption signals (Schwab, Fannie Mae, treasury commentary) as leading indicators of policy durability; the fact that major institutions continue Bitcoin initiatives despite bear market suggests deeper structural conviction than prior cycles.

— Do not attempt to time a bottom by selling into capitulation; historical indicators (on-chain loss/profit crossover, copper-to-gold) suggest downside risk is limited relative to upside optionality if AI-driven economic acceleration and reserve demand materialize.