Bitcoin’s Next 50% Move: Why the Bottom Is In | Mel Mattison

— Bitcoin is building a base around $98K–$110K after a 165% rally from $35K two years ago, with consolidation being healthy rather than concerning.

— Mel expects a 50% Bitcoin move to ~$150K by February, driven by narrative catalysts including the Clarity Act, a Sovereign Wealth Fund, a new Fed chair, and a housing emergency.

— Technical breadth in stocks shows only 39% of S&P companies above their 50-day moving average—a warning signal but not yet a structural threat to the bull market.

— The AI boom remains sustainable; only a genuine collapse in demand (not just supply bottlenecks) would threaten the longer-term bull run.

— Bitcoin's four-year cycle may have structurally changed due to institutional participation, ETFs, and derivatives, dampening volatility and potentially eliminating the 70% drawdowns of the past.

— The Trump administration's "White House Asset Management" approach to industrial policy and sovereignty, along with uncertainty around Venezuela intervention, could create near-term volatility but are unlikely to end the bull market.

— If Bitcoin breaks below the $98K channel support and stays there for a week, re-evaluate bullish thesis; conversely, any move above $110K likely re-establishes momentum toward $140K–$150K by year-end.

— Tactical opportunity: take modest profits during euphoric rallies (like last week's daily gains), then redeploy cash on pullbacks; expect 1–2% daily moves and $5K–$6K Bitcoin candles as the new normal volatility.

— Monitor regulatory clarity on the Clarity Act and partisan unity on digital asset rules; loss of bipartisan support would be a material bear signal for crypto, equivalent to 10–15% downside risk.