#1404 Phil Rosen & Anthony Pompliano on Why Bitcoin & Stocks Are Crashing (And What To Do)

— Bitcoin's price decline and daily active address metrics: Bitcoin is down 12% in six months with daily active addresses down 30% from March, but on-chain activity alone doesn't capture long-term holders treating Bitcoin as a store of value.

— Interest rate cuts and market catalysts: No clear catalyst for Bitcoin rally through year-end outside macro shifts and potential interest rate cuts; previous ETF approval drove 50% gains, but future bull runs may show lower volatility and gains compared to past cycles.

— Stock market momentum and valuation: S&P 500 has hit nearly 40 record highs this year with record 401(k) allocations and 42% of financial assets in equities; long-term dollar-cost averaging outperforms short-term timing regardless of near-term pullbacks.

— Capital gains tax proposals: Harris proposes 28% long-term capital gains tax (40% increase from current 20%), Biden originally proposed 39.6%; both policies unlikely to pass due to opposition from investment community but signal populist positioning.

— Dollar devaluation and asset appreciation: Currency debasement drives long-term stock market returns (~8% annually); real estate and equities appreciate primarily due to dollar losing purchasing power, not fundamental asset improvement.

— Government spending versus tax policy: US has a spending problem, not a revenue problem; deficit persists regardless of tax increases; zero-based budgeting and fraud elimination (estimated $233–$532 billion annually) could yield trillions in savings.

— Bitcoin at ~$56,000, down 12% in six months; daily active addresses down 30% from March peak of 1.2 million.

— S&P 500 near all-time highs with 35+ record highs in 2024; September historically the worst month for stocks (−0.7% average).

— New all-time highs at Fidelity: 497,000 401(k) accounts; 42% of household financial asset allocation in stocks (record level).

— Long-term capital gains tax currently at 20%; Harris proposal would raise to 28%, Biden originally proposed 39.6%.

— Adopt a 5–20 year investment horizon and dollar-cost average into diversified assets regardless of short-term price movement; daily or weekly volatility becomes irrelevant when compounding over decades at ~8% annually.

— Ignore political capital gains tax proposals and focus on your own consistent allocation strategy—neither Trump nor Harris will materially raise rates due to Wall Street opposition; real change would require spending cuts, not tax hikes.