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#277: Slowly getting bitcoin, why gold is already demonetized, and the virtue of Bitcoin with Larry Lepard

10/20/2021 · 83 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Government manipulation of gold: The Fed has systematically suppressed the gold price through paper gold creation and policy, stripping away its monetary premium (gold should trade at ~$10,000 today based on historical money supply ratios).

— Bitcoin's volatility as an advantage: Unlike gold, Bitcoin's extreme volatility (500% moves in six months) makes it harder for governments to suppress via short-selling, creating a structural defense against manipulation.

— Sound money as moral imperative: Both Bitcoin and gold represent non-state money and freedom from central bank control; sound money advocates (the "Remnant") should unite regardless of asset preference rather than fight over which will win.

— Deflationary future and low time preference: A Bitcoin standard enables deflation, savings rewards, and long-term thinking—the opposite of Keynesian "growth at all costs" that has destroyed savers, retirees, and the middle class.

— Coming monetary reset (10–15 years): Runaway deficit spending (spending 2x tax revenue), accelerating money supply growth, and breaking bond markets will force a return to sound money; inflation will far exceed the 1970s.

— Asset allocation wisdom: Hold both Bitcoin and gold without leverage; use gold's stability to buy Bitcoin dips and vice versa (suggested mix: 60–80% gold, 20–40% Bitcoin, or personal preference 60% Bitcoin, 40% gold).

Market & price signals

— Bitcoin has appreciated ~500% in six-month rallies historically; Lepard was a buyer at $60k and aggressive buyer at $30k during recent dips.

— Gold should trade at $10,000–$22,000 (per shadow inflation data) but sits at ~$1,800, indicating severe demonetization by Fed policy over decades.

— If hard money assets (tradable gold ~$5T, gold stocks ~$1T, Bitcoin ~$1.2T) reset to just 7% of $450T total financial assets (1980 level), they would reach $32T—a ~5x multiple.

— Bitcoin's price discovery expected to accelerate as bond yields rise and central banks lose control of longer-dated yields (the 10-year going "no bid" in March 2020 was a major warning sign).

— Commodity inflation raging (copper, zinc, energy, vehicle supply premiums of $30k+); 40 years of deflation (1981–2021) now reversing into inflationary regime.

Actionable insights

— Allocate to both Bitcoin and gold without leverage, using a mix that suits your conviction (minimum 10% each if you believe in sound money); this enables buying dips in the volatile asset with the stable one.

— Understand Bitcoin's multi-layer scaling (base layer for settlement of trillions, Lightning and other layers for billions of users) rather than assuming the network cannot support 6 billion people; also recognize gold's monetary premium is already destroyed by the Fed, so Bitcoin's adoption curve is the real growth opportunity.

— Prepare for 30–50% Bitcoin drawdowns and extreme volatility (study Weimar hyperinflation charts for reference), but dollar-cost average steadily and only spend what you can afford to hold through capitulation; leverage is a guaranteed path to ruin in this asset class.

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