Gold To $35,000? The Math Is Hard To Ignore | Josh Phair

— Gold price movement and macro context: Gold traded around $3,300 one year ago, reached $5,600 recently, and now sits around $4,700. Josh Fair discusses how central banks—particularly China—are accumulating gold rapidly, signaling a potential monetary reordering and de-dollarization.

— The Fair-Sinclair ratio: Fair revitalized a framework from legendary trader Jim Sinclair that calculates gold's equilibrium price by comparing reserve currency gold holdings to foreign debt. Applied to current conditions, this ratio suggests a potential $35,000/oz price for gold, though Fair emphasizes this is not a formal prediction.

— Geopolitical resource competition: Governments are engaged in what Fair calls "metal wars," quietly competing for gold and critical minerals. The U.S. has restricted metal flows from Latin America via banking partners, while China and BRICS nations stockpile gold to back future currencies.

— Wyoming's strategic positioning: Wyoming has become a hub for physical gold custody and asset management. The state selected Fair's Wyoming Reserve to vault state treasury gold, and Texas contracted his Scottsdale Mint to issue commemorative gold and silver coins—signaling growing state-level sovereignty plays.

— Bitcoin's institutional capture: Fair argues Bitcoin has transitioned from a grassroots monetary experiment to an institutionalized asset. ETFs and custody products have professionalized the space but may have compromised the original ethos of financial sovereignty and decentralization.

— Central bank digital currencies and programmable money: Governments are moving toward CBDCs and "programmable money" to maintain control. Fair emphasizes the need for privacy and permissionless assets (like Bitcoin) as safeguards against financial surveillance and exclusion.

— Reallocate according to central bank behavior: Individual and institutional allocations to gold remain severely under-weighted compared to historical norms and current central bank accumulation. A 20% gold allocation (as Morgan Stanley's new 60-20-20 portfolio suggests) represents a radical departure from standard 5% allocations, but aligns with how sophisticated actors are positioning.

— Custody and jurisdiction matter: For both Bitcoin and physical gold, selecting the right custodian and jurisdiction is critical. Wyoming offers unique advantages (foreign trade zone status, lien-break rules after two years, third-party audits), while on-chain self-custody with proper security remains essential for Bitcoin. Avoid concentrated counterparty risk.

— Prepare for monetary system changes before crisis hits: Hard assets and permissionless protocols offer protection against currency debasement, CBDCs, and financial surveillance. Given the scale of global debt and ongoing money printing, positioning in sound money now—before forced reallocation occurs—positions holders to preserve wealth across generational transfers.