Bitcoin’s Most Explosive Phase Starts Now | Anthony & John Pompliano
8/12/2025 · 54 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin trading near $120,000 with potential to move significantly higher as capital from contingent funding closes and hedges unwind over coming months.
— Tariffs prove deflationary rather than inflationary; 2018 data and current pricing trends (steel, solar panels, washers) confirm goods subject to tariffs are falling in price.
— Rate cuts and money printing expected later in 2025 will drive modest inflation (1.8% → ~2.2–2.3%) and boost asset prices across Bitcoin, gold, and equities.
— Ethereum narrative facing an "assault" from specialized stablecoin blockchains and yield competition; Bitcoin's store-of-value thesis remains cleanest and most defensible.
— Smart investors evaluate investments using Bitcoin as the denominator; S&P 500 up 100% in dollars but down 85% when priced in Bitcoin since 2020.
— Treasuries carry more real risk than Bitcoin: negative to flat real returns, guaranteed dollar depreciation (4%+ annually since 1971), and asset drawdowns; traditional 60–40 portfolios should shift to 60% stocks / 40% Bitcoin.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin at $120k; potential run to end of Q3 (September) followed by options expiration volatility, then stronger Q4 push into November–December. Global M2 money supply growth remains most sensitive indicator for Bitcoin; 200-week moving average crossing prior $69k all-time high is a key top signal (not yet triggered). Real-time inflation metric at 1.8% (down from 3% in December); Fed likely to cut rates 2–3 times in 2025, triggering money printing. Ethereum down ~20% against Bitcoin over past year and down structurally over five years. Treasury yields 4–4.5% nominal; real returns break-even to negative after 4%+ annual dollar depreciation. Berkshire Hathaway significantly underperformed S&P 500 post-Buffett (showing Buffett premium effect). Gold outperforming S&P 500 over 25 and 10-year periods.
Actionable insights
— Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin with no-sell discipline has historically outperformed attempts to time tops; social media capitulation (bearish-to-bullish flips) is a better sell signal than price alone.
— Evaluate all investments denominated in Bitcoin rather than dollars; if an asset cannot beat Bitcoin's return, the marginal capital should go into Bitcoin rather than dilute portfolio.
— Rebalance away from traditional 60–40 (stocks/bonds) to 60–40 (stocks/Bitcoin); treasuries offer negative real returns and structural headwinds while Bitcoin has persistent bid from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and upcoming 401k access.
Episode sponsorships
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