#505: Daniel Scrivner on Great Design & Crypto
3/4/2021 · 47 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Daniel Scrivner's background spans Apple, Square (where he scaled the design team), and now Flow, a productivity platform he's turning around as CEO with Andrew Wilkinson's Tiny Capital.
— Public market valuations are at historic highs, driven by reflexivity—the self-fulfilling cycle where price increases lead to belief in higher valuations, visible in GameStop, Airbnb, DoorDash, and Crypto assets.
— Robinhood's "commission-free" model is deceptive; users pay hidden costs through order routing to Citadel and restricted trading access, unlike alternatives such as Public.com or Interactive Brokers.
— Bitcoin and cryptocurrency offer global, decentralized transactional utility but remain plagued by poor user experience, accessibility, and education; crypto is "nerds building for nerds."
— Early-stage company success depends almost entirely on founder grit, determination, and willingness to operate with conviction for 5–10 years through multiple pivots, not on market or product alone.
— Fintech represents the largest market opportunity of the next decade due to continuous disruption; established players face displacement by newer models despite crowded competition.
Market & price signals
— Daniel's personal portfolios (Future Shape fund and Perpetuity Fund) were up 30% in January alone, driven by elevated valuations in disruptive tech and family-held luxury businesses (e.g., LVMH). He notes that historic highs do not preclude further gains; valuations today may be low relative to future performance. He references George Soros's concept of reflexivity to explain market dislocations. Crypto investment history: he began investing around Bitcoin at $2,500 and experienced prolonged underwater positions before recent gains. He invests probabilistically in crypto rather than forming definitive judgments, viewing Bitcoin as a long-term store of value rather than a short-term speculative asset.
Actionable insights
— Use stop-loss orders at 10% below current prices to limit downside while capturing continued upside; avoid all-cash positioning based solely on historic valuations, as future performance matters more than past highs.
— Evaluate exchanges (Robinhood vs. Public.com vs. Interactive Brokers) by understanding hidden costs and order routing, not just headline commission rates; prioritize platforms that actively protect user interests over those exploiting information asymmetries.
— Build personal investment conviction by understanding your own brain wiring, risk tolerance, and investment style before placing bets; borrow conviction from no one, and recognize that value investing and growth investing both succeed—the method must match your temperament.
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