"If Our Entire Economy Depends On Data Centers, We Are F*cked" | Dave Collum

— The 40-year downtrend in Treasury rates is over, with the 10-year now around 5.26% and being "drawn like a magnet" toward 6%, representing a historic shift in the long credit cycle.

— AI capex buildout has "the life expectancy of a soufflé"; Jensen Huang's NVIDIA share buybacks signal a market top, while the entire AI valuation depends on vendor financing and collateral abuse.

— Boomer asset liquidation will force a repricing lower—the median boomer has only $105,000–$300,000 in retirement savings and cannot pass wealth to heirs without significant markdown.

— Geopolitical risks in Iran, Israel, and Ukraine show restraint from rational actors (Putin, Iran leadership), yet US policy creates unnecessary escalation and destabilization.

— AI safety concerns are overblown relative to near-term human-driven destruction; Bitcoin's proof-of-work constraint offers a physical brake on runaway digital systems.

— The yen carry trade unwinding and 2-year Treasury rates near 2% signal potential systemic stress despite media downplaying the danger.

— 10-year Treasury yield: 5.26%; 3-year: 5.57%; 2-year approaching 1.95% (highest since 1995).

— Rising mortgage rates (7%+) lock homeowners into old sub-2% mortgages, creating a housing supply trap.

— Yen carry trade blow-up: Japan 2-year at ~1.95%, highest since 1995; infinite cost of leverage for those positioned at near-zero rates.

— Strait of Hormuz closure has not caused expected oil shock, suggesting markets adapted faster than predicted; diesel pricing and refinery destruction merit closer watch.

— Six small regional bank failures noted (baseline unknown; comparison to historical norms needed).

— Housing and leverage exposure: If you are leveraged into Bitcoin or real estate, tripling borrowing costs will force margin calls. Deleveraging is underway; prepare for forced selling.

— Boomer wealth transfer myth: Expect median asset prices (homes, equities) to reprice sharply lower as the largest demographic cohort liquidates. Inheritance will not save the younger generation; focus on cash flows and productive assets, not legacy wealth capture.

— Physical constraints on digital systems: Bitcoin's proof-of-work and on-chain settlement provide a rare hard brake on financial system gaming; holding self-custody Bitcoin may hedge against both digital runaway and currency devaluation as rates normalize.