Adam Kobeissi

#1432 Adam Kobeissi | Bitcoin Is Going To Skyrocket After The Election

- Inflation has eroded purchasing power significantly (a 2020 dollar is worth 75 cents today), and while headline CPI has moderated, prices remain elevated and wages haven't caught up, creating entrenched inflation that will likely persist above the Fed's 2% target. - Home affordability has collapsed: median home prices doubled from $280K in 2016 to $430K in 2024, while mortgage rates tripled from 2.5% to 7-8%, forcing buyers to spend over 50% of household income on housing costs alone. - The S&P 500 is up 40% over the last 12 months (the best annual return since the 1950s), driven by technical strength, election-year seasonality, Fed pivot euphoria, and strong risk appetite rather than earnings growth alone. - Job market data is unreliable: over 800,000 jobs have been revised downward in the past year, with the most recent October figure showing only 12,000 jobs created, and multiple consecutive revisions suggest the true labor market is weaker than reported. - Banks hold $500–600 billion in unrealized losses on securities purchased when rates were low; the regional bank crisis was contained through Fed backstops and acquisitions, but the precedent of moral hazard encourages future risk-taking. - Warren Buffett's $325 billion cash position and sale of Apple and Bank of America shares may reflect tax optimization, skepticism of current valuations, and preparation for future acquisition opportunities rather than a market timing call.