What Bitcoin Did
Did the Bitcoin Bull Market Just End? | Checkmate & Alec Dejanovic
- Long-term holder sell-off is unprecedented: Billions of dollars daily in older coin sales over six months, with 70% of Bitcoin's cost basis now sitting above $85K, creating significant overhead resistance.
- The "Great Rotation" versus typical bull cycles: Unlike normal bulls driven by pure euphoria, this cycle features massive sell-side pressure from early hodlers taking profits, with ETF inflows failing to match the sell volume.
- ETF and options reshaping market structure: iBit options and ETF flows are becoming structural anchors; 75% of on-chain volume now involves million-dollar-plus transactions, signaling institutional rather than retail movement.
- True market mean at $82K sets bottom zone: On-chain realized price and cost basis metrics suggest a gathering floor between $70K–$80K; buying pressure likely emerges around this level from banks and sovereigns.
- Who is buying remains the key unknown: Massive spot-market accumulation outside ETF flows suggests institutional or sovereign buyers, but identity and conviction remain opaque until supply metrics confirm.
- Macro liquidity and macro tailwinds ahead: QT ending, balance-sheet expansion, and mid-term political incentives point to constructive macro in 2026; gold's move to 1979 levels signals system stress requiring reserve-asset rotation.