The Bitcoin Collective
Bitcoin Treasury Companies, Digital Credit and Where Bitcoin Goes Next | Ben Harvey #226
- Bitcoin drawdown compression cycle-over-cycle (50% in current cycle vs. 77–84% historically) suggests potential cycle bottom despite brutal sentiment.
- ETF flows show rotation from fast money (traders, hedge funds) to long-term capital (registered investment advisors), indicating holder base strengthening.
- Long-term holders now represent 75% of Bitcoin supply (15 million BTC), reducing tradable float and removing marginal sellers; this structural shift supports shallower drawdowns.
- Realized volatility compression (currently ~40% vs. 80%+ in bear markets) acts as a capital charge; lower vol widens institutional buyer eligibility and mandate access.
- Bitcoin treasury companies represent the endgame: a financial system built on Bitcoin as reserve asset, unlocked via digital credit products (perpetual preferred instruments) that allow institutions to access stable, yield-bearing assets backed by Bitcoin rather than holding volatile Bitcoin directly.
- SmarterWeb's UK court approval (14 July) to convert £210 million share premium into distributable reserves opens the door for the first perpetual preferred (digital credit) issuance in Europe, likely within weeks.