What Bitcoin Did
Bitcoin’s Bull Market Is Back | Checkmate
- Bull market probability and technical levels: Checkmate assesses an 80% probability the bear market bottom is in (at $60K in February), with key resistance levels at $78K, $85K, and $95K that will signal strengthening bullish momentum. Previous cycles show bears typically revisit but don't go below realized price; this cycle appears different due to unrealized profit dynamics from early holders.
- On-chain metrics and cost basis analysis: The "true market mean" (developed with Dave Puell) suggests the active investor cost basis clusters around $75–$85K, which aligns with ETF inflows, Saylor's DCA, and mining profitability. This zone represents the psychological and technical midpoint where sentiment shifts from capitulation to accumulation.
- Macro headwinds and currency debasement: Bond yields above 5% globally signal loss of confidence in government debt; Australia's 30-year yield approaching 6% reflects fiscal stress. Bitcoin's role is to preserve wealth outside a debasing system as obligations exceed assets; geopolitical shifts (Iran using Bitcoin to evade sanctions, Russia's frozen reserves in 2022) accelerate adoption of sound money alternatives.
- Australian tax reform as harbinger: A proposed removal of the 50% capital gains discount (replacing it with indexation) effectively doubles the tax burden on young savers, contradicting stated goals of helping first-time homebuyers. Checkmate views this as a "trial balloon" for global wealth confiscation and signals deteriorating policy competence or deliberate wealth extraction.
- Institutional and ETF accumulation: Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Saylor's MicroStrategy are now roughly equal in capital flows and represent the largest marginal buyers. ETFs showed remarkable resilience through the bear market, with cumulative flows only 5% off all-time highs despite price down 50%, suggesting structural support.
- Duration-based asset allocation: Gold and Bitcoin serve different time horizons—gold for near-term needs (house deposits, 3–5 years), Bitcoin for generational wealth and long-term inflation hedge (10–30 years). Bitcoin's higher expected volatility and duration justify larger allocation for long-dated liabilities.