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David Puell
#1091 David Puell On If The ETH Merge Will Affect Bitcoin
- Bitcoin's 200-week moving average continues to serve as reliable support across multiple market cycles, including major crashes like COVID-19 in 2020. - Investor cost basis, calculated from realized gains minus miner revenue, has historically marked cyclical bottoms and currently sits at approximately $19,000. - Short-term holder cost basis crossing below long-term holder cost basis is a reliable indicator of cyclical bottoms and marks equilibrium between speculators and long-term participants. - Long-term holder supply has reached all-time highs at approximately 14 million Bitcoin, increasing market illiquidity and inelasticity. - ETH-BTC trading pair is within striking distance of 2018 all-time highs; Ethereum shows record options market open interest and futures backwardation ahead of the merge. - Macro environment correlation with crypto has intensified since COVID-19, with Fed policy and inflation trends now the dominant price discovery drivers for Bitcoin.
#610 The On-Chain Metrics OG w/ David Puell & Will Clemente
- David Puell outlined the three waves of on-chain analytics evolution: early pioneers (Willy Wu, Nick Carter, 2016–17), second-wave researchers like himself who created metrics such as MVRV and SOPR, and the current data service provider wave (Glassnode, CryptoQuant, Coinmetrics) racing to extract signal from noise. - MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) compares current market cap to the cost basis of all holders, signaling overextension when above realized cap and accumulation opportunity when below it. - Funding rates on perpetual contracts provide more reliable signals than on-chain metrics alone, with negative funding and sustained negative premiums indicating demand for spot over derivatives and bullish conditions. - Institutional participation has reshaped market structure: Grayscale arbitrage unwind and profit-taking after 3x–6x returns collapsed new capital inflows; macro events (COVID, black swans) can override technical signals but do not invalidate long-term on-chain accumulation trends. - Current market shows a major divergence between deteriorating price action and bullish on-chain signals (net illiquid supply, negative funding, SOPR neutral)—the largest disconnect since COVID, suggesting potential for a large volatility squeeze once price reprices the underlying accumulation. - On-chain analytics are most useful for active managers confirming macro theses and swing traders planning positions over weeks to months; permanent holders benefit less from short-term metrics, while day traders should focus on order books and funding rates.