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Lavish
"Four Horsemen Of The Diesel Apocalypse" Are Coming For Europe | Doomberg & Lavish
- Bond yields near 20-year highs represent a structural regime shift, not a temporary blip; the 10-year at 5% signals the end of the 60/40 portfolio era and a transition into fiscal dominance. - Private equity-owned insurance companies are stuffing themselves with self-marked junk debt, echoing 2007–2008 conditions; mark-to-market cascades could trigger contagion if forced asset sales occur. - Europe faces a "Four Horsemen of the Diesel Apocalypse": Trump export limits, sanctions on China and India, escalating Middle East conflict, and refineries running at dangerous overcapacity. - Energy is the base layer of all markets; currencies are promissory notes on energy, not vice versa; nations are now selling Treasuries to buy fuel. - Bitcoin is acting as the "hot ball of money" hunting asymmetric opportunities amid geopolitical chaos, Fed rate hikes, and bond yield volatility—not as a flight-to-safety play. - Canada and US theater around EU alignment is largely political cover for pipeline infrastructure plays; the two countries are too intertwined for meaningful conflict.
US Iran Failure, Bitcoin Bear Market Over, Yield Curve Control | Doomberg & Lavish
- Iran ceasefire as historic turning point: The U.S. failure to achieve its stated objectives in Iran signals a crack in dollar-backed military hegemony and a shift toward a multipolar world; gold and Bitcoin are responding to this structural shift in global power. - Yield curve control as inevitable outcome: Unable to auction sufficient long-term debt to cover deficits, the Federal Reserve will eventually resort to yield curve control and money printing, making inflation structural and benefiting hard assets. - K-shaped economy deepening: Lower-income households are defaulting on credit cards at 2008 crisis rates while wealthier segments (boomers and asset holders) continue thriving; wage growth lags actual inflation in insurance, childcare, and essentials. - SpaceX IPO as financial suppression mechanism: Vastly overvalued company creates taxable events that harvest capital gains from retail and 401k accounts, plugging Treasury revenue gaps without explicit tax increases; similar pattern expected with OpenAI and Anthropic. - Oil oversupply and China's hidden capacity: China flexed 3–4 million barrels per day of unused refining and LNG capacity; crude will fall significantly because the market was overbuilt and arbitrage will close much lower absent sustained conflict. - Fed chair Warsh and short-duration debt rollover crisis: ~$12–13 trillion in short-term Treasury debt maturing annually; investors watching Warsh's tone this week to gauge whether rates rise or yield curve control begins immediately.