Lavish

US Iran Failure, Bitcoin Bear Market Over, Yield Curve Control | Doomberg & Lavish

- Iran ceasefire as historic turning point: The U.S. failure to achieve its stated objectives in Iran signals a crack in dollar-backed military hegemony and a shift toward a multipolar world; gold and Bitcoin are responding to this structural shift in global power. - Yield curve control as inevitable outcome: Unable to auction sufficient long-term debt to cover deficits, the Federal Reserve will eventually resort to yield curve control and money printing, making inflation structural and benefiting hard assets. - K-shaped economy deepening: Lower-income households are defaulting on credit cards at 2008 crisis rates while wealthier segments (boomers and asset holders) continue thriving; wage growth lags actual inflation in insurance, childcare, and essentials. - SpaceX IPO as financial suppression mechanism: Vastly overvalued company creates taxable events that harvest capital gains from retail and 401k accounts, plugging Treasury revenue gaps without explicit tax increases; similar pattern expected with OpenAI and Anthropic. - Oil oversupply and China's hidden capacity: China flexed 3–4 million barrels per day of unused refining and LNG capacity; crude will fall significantly because the market was overbuilt and arbitrage will close much lower absent sustained conflict. - Fed chair Warsh and short-duration debt rollover crisis: ~$12–13 trillion in short-term Treasury debt maturing annually; investors watching Warsh's tone this week to gauge whether rates rise or yield curve control begins immediately.