Lepard

Warsh's Bluff, AI Bailout Risk & Bitcoin's Next Leg | Lepard & St. Onge

- Kevin Warsh presents as hawkish but is likely more dovish than his rhetoric suggests; rate cuts are probable before the election to support economic growth and political objectives. - The Federal Reserve's fundamental constraint is that growing debt requires growing money supply to service interest payments—a mathematical inevitability that will force eventual monetary expansion regardless of the chair's stated position. - AI is experiencing a commoditization crisis: competitive moats vanish in weeks, making application-layer companies vulnerable; infrastructure (picks and shovels) captures more durable value than AI application developers themselves. - Legitimate energy cost grievances exist around AI data centers, but nuclear power expansion and competitive energy markets could resolve capacity constraints; some regions are now requiring data centers to fund their own power. - Bitcoin's volatility is normalizing over time (corrections shrinking from 90% to ~55%); this mirrors gold's boom-bust cycles during non-dominance and does not signal fundamental failure. - Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy: the preferred equity liquidation cascade was healthy feedback limiting leverage; Saylor's evolving playbook (including potential Bitcoin sales when stock trades at discount) reflects mature capital allocation, not deception.