Pleb UnderGround
The Next Major Bitcoin SHOCK Isn't 'Number Go Up'
- On-chain signals for cycle bottom: Four metrics point to market recovery—supply dormancy at 60% (historically elevated), SLRV ratio in "shadow zone," exchange balances at 6-year low, and STH MVRV ratio above 1.0, all historically consistent with cycle bottoms.
- Price predictions and technical analysis: Accounts predict 87K followed by 144K, with some suggesting the bottom is already in around the 59K bounce. Host remains skeptical of exact pattern replication across cycles.
- Paper Bitcoin and counterparty risk: Discussion of potential contagion when claims to Bitcoin exceed actual Bitcoin available for withdrawal, with parallels to pre-2008 financial system behavior and historical precedent in shitcoin projects.
- MicroStrategy structural concerns: Analysis argues MSTR faces "inevitable structural ceiling" due to cash reserves declining (15 months of runway), share dilution, and debt-driven model that wraps Bitcoin in the same system it was designed to escape.
- Mining in America Act status: Bill introduced March 2024 remains in early committee stages with no hearings or further progress; includes voluntary certification program and pushes "clean Bitcoin" narrative.
- Real-world Bitcoin adoption: Bitcoin school in rural Uganda (Starlight Elementary) now operates with 100+ children, four classrooms, and 22 staff paid almost entirely in sats—funded through grassroots Lightning Network campaign.
- Nostr VPN release: Marty Malm released new open-source mesh VPN replacing traditional VPN trust model; uses Nostr key pairs for identity with no registration, supports multi-hop routing, and available for macOS, Linux, Windows, and Android.