Michael Howell

The Everything Bubble Is Over: Michael Howell’s Warning for 2026

- Liquidity cycle peaked Sept–Oct 2024 and is weakening; cyclical top already in place, distinct from recent geopolitical shocks - Money flows downstream: economies depend on liquidity/money flow; $10 oil increase reduces global liquidity ~3%; geopolitical events are secondary to monetary cycles - Debt-to-liquidity matters more than debt-to-GDP because debt must be refinanced; a 2x debt-to-liquidity ratio is equilibrium; breaches trigger crises - Two refinancing legs: (1) collateral markets turning debt into liquidity via repo; (2) direct debt refinancing—both stressed by rising MOVE index, widening spreads, declining term premia - Debt maturity wall approaching: ~$45 trillion of advanced-economy debt needs refinancing by 2030; AI capex and government spending are sucking liquidity from financial markets into real economy - Fed will eventually return to support bond markets (timing unclear, likely 2027+); private sector cannot absorb scale of refinancing alone