The Pomp Podcast
#998 Will Clemente & Mitch Askew On How Bitcoin’s Adoption Is Just Getting Started
- Bitcoin user adoption is at 0.36% of global population, still in early adopter phase before the 10% threshold that typically triggers aggressive growth in technology adoption curves.
- Historical technology adoption data overlaid on Bitcoin shows Bitcoin growing faster than past technologies because it spreads on internet rails with direct financial incentives, not analog infrastructure.
- On-chain metrics show 30.8 million active unique entities (conservative proxy for users) and 253 million cumulative entities that have ever used Bitcoin; these metrics likely underestimate actual adoption.
- Two complementary trends—exponential user growth juxtaposed with Bitcoin's pre-programmed deflationary supply—create a structural bullish case for long-term price appreciation if adoption continues.
- Mining profitability is under short-term pressure as margins compress in bear market conditions, but hash rate and user adoption have historically recovered after capitulation phases.
- Hash rate decentralization to the United States is positive compared to China concentration, but long-term resilience depends on geographic distribution, which US federalism naturally encourages.