Recent episodes
Bitcoin Treasury Companies, Digital Credit and Where Bitcoin Goes Next | Ben Harvey #226
- Bitcoin drawdown compression cycle-over-cycle (50% in current cycle vs. 77–84% historically) suggests potential cycle bottom despite brutal sentiment. - ETF flows show rotation from fast money (traders, hedge funds) to long-term capital (registered investment advisors), indicating holder base strengthening. - Long-term holders now represent 75% of Bitcoin supply (15 million BTC), reducing tradable float and removing marginal sellers; this structural shift supports shallower drawdowns. - Realized volatility compression (currently ~40% vs. 80%+ in bear markets) acts as a capital charge; lower vol widens institutional buyer eligibility and mandate access. - Bitcoin treasury companies represent the endgame: a financial system built on Bitcoin as reserve asset, unlocked via digital credit products (perpetual preferred instruments) that allow institutions to access stable, yield-bearing assets backed by Bitcoin rather than holding volatile Bitcoin directly. - SmarterWeb's UK court approval (14 July) to convert £210 million share premium into distributable reserves opens the door for the first perpetual preferred (digital credit) issuance in Europe, likely within weeks.
Bitcoin Feels Like 2022 Again, And That's Not a Bad Sign
- Current market sentiment mirrors November 2022: 50% drawdown from recent highs, ETF outflows, negative headlines—but the potential bottom (~$60k) vastly exceeds the 2022 floor ($15–16k), signalling structural strength despite identical panic. - Institutional and regulatory landscape has transformed in four years: spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock), JP Morgan client access, sovereign wealth fund accumulation, Square merchant adoption (4 million US terminals), and US strategic reserve framework now exist where none did in 2022. - Bitcoin declared dead 475 times on record; the pattern shows deaths spike when price falls (June–July 2022, February–April 2026) and decline during rallies—a predictable cycle that shakes out uninformed participants rather than signalling genuine failure. - AI capital rotation is temporary; while AI tools capture attention and funding, Bitcoin remains the one digital asset that cannot be copied or printed, gaining relative importance as AI commoditizes everything else. - Bitcoin Business Network has exceeded expectations with 100+ UK member businesses signing up weekly, validating in-person professional networking and friction reduction (onboarding, tax, accounting guidance) during a bear market. - Bear markets are for building; new website, streamlined business onboarding, and a major unannounced expansion in the pipeline position the ecosystem for the next price cycle.
The Story of a Hotelier Who Discovered Bitcoin Nine Months Ago and Is Already Thinking in Sats | Nicholas Dickinson #224
- Nick's hotel business journey: Owner of Congham Hall, a 13th hotel property across a 40+ year hospitality career; operates the business as a profitable all-year-round operation through diversified offerings (spa, cabins, pub) on 50 acres in Norfolk. - Bitcoin discovery and conviction building: Found Bitcoin through reading *The Price of Tomorrow*, watched "What's the Problem" video, and engaged with the Bitcoin Advisor (Richard Cahill, Bitcoin IFA). Bought first significant stack at all-time high (October, ~£93,000 per BTC) and has continued DCA-ing through the downturn. - Power law framework: Central to his conviction is understanding Bitcoin's governance by power law; expects 42% current CAGR declining over time; uses this to assess discount/premium to trend price rather than short-term fiat volatility, giving him confidence to hold through corrections. - Multi-sig custody and family alignment: Uses collaborative custody with the Bitcoin Advisor for security and peace of mind; this setup has been crucial in gaining his wife's confidence to increase household Bitcoin exposure together. - Business integration challenges: Wants Congham to accept Bitcoin but recognizes stakeholders need their own journey; taking incremental steps (accept payment, convert to fiat initially) rather than forcing conviction; seeking external demand signals (customer requests) to encourage board acceptance. - Unexpected rabbit holes: Learned fundamentals (what is money, power laws, network effects); anticipating experiencing Bitcoin volatility cycles he hasn't yet lived through; acknowledges he's only 9 months in and preparing mentally for "face ripping" corrections.
What Would a Bitcoin-Native Bank Actually Look Like? | Piotr Bedkowski #223
- Product strategy at Zappo: Building a full-service Bitcoin banking platform (wallet, savings, trading, lending, yield products) designed to meet long-term Bitcoiners' needs beyond simple hodling, including borrowing against Bitcoin without rehypothecation. - Bitcoin adoption narrative: Emphasizes getting billions of people direct exposure to Bitcoin through easy-to-use interfaces (potential "iPhone moment" via native OS integration) rather than relying solely on institutional adoption, ETFs, or government reserves. - Currency debasement case: Historical pattern showing all fiat currencies eventually lose value (pound sterling down 95% since 1971); Bitcoin offers immunity against monetary debasement as a scarce, hard asset with a fixed supply. - Custody and security evolution: Zappo shifted from multi-sig deep cold storage vaults ("Fort Knox of Bitcoin") to modern MPC (multiparty computation) protocols, maintaining security while enabling faster transactions for institutional and high-net-worth clients. - Collateral economics: Bitcoin should command lower borrowing rates than other assets (real estate, stocks) due to superior liquidity, no counterparty risk, portability, and 24/7 tradability—but market pricing hasn't fully reflected this yet. - User-centric product development: Decisions informed by three pillars: direct customer feedback, market trends within the Bitcoin community, and long-term vision of what banking infrastructure should look like in a Bitcoin-native world.
The Plan to Put a Bitcoiner in Every Boardroom on Earth | Scott Ellam #222
- XE's public market strategy: Structured as a traditional operating business designed to grow through bitcoin treasury accumulation rather than conventional scaling. Recent equity raise deployed 100% into bitcoin acquisition (10 BTC purchased). - Recruitment industry disruption: XE targets thousands of privately-held recruitment firms globally facing three core problems—cash leakage, scaling challenges tied to headcount, and difficult exits. Proposes bitcoin-backed equity incentives for recruiters and acquisition targets. - Talent retention through bitcoin alignment: Performance-based equity stakes backed by bitcoin treasury growth align employee incentives with long-term value creation, attracting high-performing recruiters who otherwise lack exit paths in a relationship-driven industry. - Bitcoin settlement for services: XE accepted 0.516 BTC as fee payment for executive recruitment placement. International cross-border payments identified as major friction point where bitcoin and stablecoins offer efficiency gains. - AI integration without role displacement: Deployed AI trained on negotiation frameworks and thousands of recruitment calls to enhance rather than replace recruiter work. Increased time spent on revenue-generating activities from 50% to 70%, targeting 90%. - Second-order bitcoin adoption: By placing thousands of executives within bitcoin-native companies and acquiring recruitment firms into XE's bitcoin-treasury model, every senior business leader globally would interact with bitcoin-informed recruiters, driving corporate adoption organically.
Why the UK Is Drifting on Bitcoin, And How to Fix It | Ben Cousens #221
- Antidote's founding and model: A Y Combinator-style accelerator for Bitcoin fintech businesses, offering $50,000 capital with 5% equity stake, curriculum on go-to-market strategy, and free office space on London's Hatton Garden. - Gaming and Lightning integration: ZBD embeds Lightning Network into games to enable Bitcoin payouts. Counter-Strike mod that paid sats created engagement; mobile gaming focus reached billions of potential players; Series C raised $40 million in January 2024. - Venture capital challenges in Bitcoin: Founders struggle balancing Bitcoin principles with investor demands for fiat revenue; gap between projects and investable companies; limited addressable market requires clear business models and execution discipline. - UK Bitcoin ecosystem: Author observes UK "drifting" rather than falling behind; lacks strategic government vision; sees generational adoption emerging naturally; compares American Bitcoin hubs (Presidio, Wolf) with nascent UK community. - Future mainstream adoption: Predicts 5–10 year timeline for high street banks offering Bitcoin savings accounts alongside traditional portfolios; younger demographics increasingly view Bitcoin as natural part of investment universe. - Nostr and agentic commerce: Interest in commercial Nostr applications (data, communication, wallet connectivity) and AI agents for commerce; sees Bitcoin's role in autonomous transactions.