Recent episodes
Bitcoin Memorial Day Briefing
- Consumer sentiment at all-time lows — University of Michigan survey fell to 44.8, lower than COVID or 2008 financial crisis levels, signaling severe main street pain amid K-shaped recovery. - Credit card delinquencies spiking — 90+ day delinquencies hit 13.1%, the highest in 15 years and approaching all-time records, indicating household financial stress. - Treasury market stress and yield pressure — 10-year yields remain elevated above 5.5% as foreign buyers liquidate US assets (Turkey sold nearly all holdings in March), forcing the Fed toward yield curve control and currency debasement. - Geopolitical supply chain disruption — Strait of Hormuz remains closed with Middle East conflict ongoing; countries implementing energy rationing; Australia running out of oil signals developed-nation crisis early stages. - Austrian economics framework — Clarified that economic productivity (measured by profit/loss and voluntary exchange) differs from moral worth; profit signals value creation, not personal virtue. - Bitcoin sentiment at lows — Google search trends for Bitcoin at 5-year lows; VC deal count lowest in years despite record capital deployment (concentrated in AI/SpaceX, not crypto).
Bitcoin Doesn't Negotiate
- Strait of Hormuz crisis: The critical shipping chokepoint remains effectively closed (zero to five daily vessel crossings vs. historical 150), with Iran now charging Bitcoin-denominated tolls for passage. This disruption is accelerating inflation and upending global supply chains. - Consumer pain and real wage collapse: Real wages turned negative for the first time since 2022. Consumer sentiment hit all-time lows—worse than 2008, the dot-com crash, or the 1980s recession. Credit card, student loan, and auto loan delinquencies are near post-financial-crisis highs. - Producer Price Index shock: PPI came in at 6% versus 4.8% expected—a leading indicator that CPI inflation is about to surge. This precedes the full impact of Hormuz closure on global supply chains. - Bond market crisis unfolding: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breached 4.6%, with the G7 convening in Paris to discuss the selloff. Yields are soaring across the West; the UK is behaving like an emerging market (yields rising while currency weakens). The U.S. cannot afford yields above 5–6% without monetary intervention. - Debt trap with no solution: U.S. debt-to-GDP approaches 130%—historically unprecedented. The system is too leveraged to absorb a crisis without money printing. The trilemma facing the Fed: can't cut rates (inflation), can't hike (bond market and banks collapse), can't let treasuries fail (system collapse). - Iran's Bitcoin adoption for Hormuz settlement: Iran officially adopted Bitcoin as a medium of exchange for ships transiting the Strait—a historic moment for Bitcoin as a neutral, censorship-resistant settlement layer for international trade, especially among sanctioned nations.
Bitcoin & The Tale of Two Wolves
- Bitcoin and the Tale of Two Wolves: The episode frames current macro conditions as two competing forces—an AI-driven productivity boom with massive government deficit spending versus real-world physical constraints (Strait of Hormuz closure, oil shortages, supply chain disruption). Bitcoin trades at $81,900 with a $1.64 trillion market cap, only 35% below its all-time high of $126,160 set October 6, 2025. - The Strait of Hormuz remains closed: Iran continues blocking ~20% of global oil supply with no clear resolution. Jack uses four consistent questions to avoid political noise: Is the strait closed? (Yes) Is conflict ongoing? (Yes, peace talks deteriorated Monday, May 11) Are supply chains disrupted? (Yes) Can global debt survive this? (No). - Wall Street vs. Main Street divergence: S&P 500 at all-time highs (7,400) while US consumer sentiment hit an all-time low (48.2)—worse than 2008 financial crisis or 1980s recession. S&P Q1 earnings per share up 27% year-over-year, while total wages as a share of GDP hit all-time lows. - QE by another name: Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening in December 2025 and began balance sheet expansion (a "repurchasing program") that was supposed to end in April but continued into May without public announcement. This de facto QE fuels asset prices while Main Street faces record inflation in energy, food, and housing. - AI productivity boom is real: Goldman Sachs projects 24x token consumption growth by 2030. Companies revising earnings guidance upward (EPS revisions at historic highs), gross margins expanding, and employment in professional/business services collapsing 300,000 positions as AI displaces consulting, accounting, legal, and staffing roles. - Fertility collapse and societal stress: US fertility peaked in 2007; the number of 18-year-olds will fall 14% over the coming decade. Jack connects monetary policy to population decline, illness, drug addiction, and demonization of productive wealthy individuals—setting conditions for political violence and social fracture.
Hold Onto Your Butts (And Your Bitcoin)
- Macro environment deterioration: Oil shocks, bond market volatility, and currency debasement signal systemic stress. The Strait of Hormuz closure (20% of global oil supply) remains unresolved, driving crude above $120/barrel and gas prices toward historical highs. - Consumer sentiment collapse: 55% of Americans report worsening financial situations—worse than COVID and the 2008 financial crisis. Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending is declining despite nominal dollar growth. - Inflation cycle returning: With oil markets disrupted and central banks already injecting liquidity via reserve management purchases (de facto QE), a second wave of inflation appears "baked in." Historical 1970s patterns could repeat. - Bond market stress signals: Rising yields, falling bond prices, and elevated MOVE index (bond volatility) indicate loss of confidence in US Treasury demand. Carry trades are unwinding as leverage becomes risky. - Bitcoin as energy-money: Mallers frames Bitcoin through an energy lens—everything is a derivative of energy consumption. Bitcoin's proof-of-work structure makes it the superior long-term store of value as fiat debases. - Strike lending growth & 21 merger vision: Strike launched volatility-proof loans, expanded line-of-credit to 40+ US states, secured a $2.1B credit facility with Tether, and published a vision for a top-right-quadrant Bitcoin company combining high conviction with high operating income.
Mailbag Monday: Live From The Bitcoin Conference
- Macro conditions driving Bitcoin adoption: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global supply chains are disrupted, and sovereign debt cannot survive without money printing. These conditions will accelerate adoption of hard money alternatives. - Currency debasement as policy: When forced to choose between asset price collapse and currency weakness, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve choose debasement. The UAE swap line exemplifies this: rather than allow asset sales that would crater markets, officials print dollars to prevent "disorderly" liquidation. - Bitcoin outperforms in crises: Data shows Bitcoin has outperformed across seven major crises in the past year—from COVID to geopolitical escalation to banking stress—contradicting claims it behaves like risk-off assets. - Quantum FUD and Bitcoin resilience: Project 11's "Q Day" bounty was misleading; quantum threats remain theoretical and distant. Bitcoin developers are already addressing potential vulnerabilities through multiple proposals. - Node validation and consensus: Running nodes is critical because nodes enforce Bitcoin's rules. Whoever can run nodes controls what Bitcoin is; this is why keeping Bitcoin accessible on consumer hardware matters more than any single person's holdings. - Satoshi's anonymity should be respected: Finding Satoshi serves no purpose and violates the one request Satoshi made—to be left alone. Bitcoin is bigger than any individual, and investigating Satoshi endangers whoever might be accused.