Market Chaos: Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over? | Checkmate
10/13/2025 · 71 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Over $20 billion in liquidations occurred across crypto markets during the weekend deleveraging event, with Bitcoin experiencing $2.4–2.5 billion in long liquidations—comparable to mid-2021 sell-offs.
— Market makers widened spreads and eventually withdrew liquidity as volatility spiked, causing altcoin prices to crash 60–80% or to zero while Bitcoin declined ~12% from its all-time high.
— Bitcoin's structural resilience differs sharply from altcoins: it remains liquid, exhibits normal volatility patterns, and has not set a new lower low on the daily chart despite the downturn.
— The deleveraging exposed that altcoin markets lack genuine buyers; when market makers stepped away, there was simply no bid, revealing the fragility of leverage-dependent positions across unregulated exchanges.
— Bitcoin dominance expanded significantly, suggesting the long-term demonetization of altcoins mirrors the gold-to-silver ratio trend; regulatory approvals and institutional ETFs make Bitcoin-only allocation increasingly defensible for serious capital.
— Key price levels determine sentiment shifts: 114K (short-term cost basis), 110K (point of control), 105K, and 95K (the "bull's last stand") define escalating risk zones where 62% of all dollars invested would be underwater below that level.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin is currently ~12% below its all-time high of ~124K, trading in a zone where 30% of all Bitcoin has a cost basis above 95K and 62% of all dollars ever invested sit above that level. Open interest declined 25% during the event (from $94B to $70B), wiping out roughly four months of OI growth. The liquidation was concentrated on unregulated exchanges (Hyperliquids, ByBit, and other "backwater" venues), not CME futures, which have remained relatively flat since November. The realized price sits around 55K; Checkmate's "True Market Mean" model places fair value near 80K, where the ETF average cost basis and major on-chain volume metrics cluster. Bitcoin fundamentally belongs at 150K based on capital inflows, but 95K represents the bull's last stand; 80K the likely bear market floor if sentiment breaks. Gold remained flat-to-positive during the crypto crash, signaling no macro capitulation yet. Checkmate assigns ~30% probability (up from ~10% pre-event) to Bitcoin revisiting 95K, with escalating downside risk below 114K.
Actionable insights
— If Bitcoin holds above 118K (local point of control with highest volume), the bull case remains intact and the event marks a healthy deleveraging correction; below 110K, sentiment deteriorates exponentially and conviction should hinge on fundamental reassessment rather than price support levels.
— Long-term holders must distinguish between leverage-driven pain (altcoins) and spot-driven fundamentals (Bitcoin): $2.5 billion in daily spot sell-side pressure coexists with sustained ETF inflows, meaning the deleveraging cleared excess leverage but did not break underlying institutional demand or reserve accumulation.
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