#1572 Jordi Visser | BITCOIN NEW ALL-TIME HIGH MEANS WE GO HIGHER!
7/12/2025 · 46 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin breaking out to all-time highs driven by post-options-expiration supply relief, short covering, and growing traditional finance adoption triggered by Circle's IPO event.
— PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data bottoming and turning upward globally, signaling shift from software/tech dominance toward economically sensitive sectors and commodities.
— US dollar weakness, rising global M2 liquidity, and China-US trade détente creating structural tailwinds for Bitcoin and risk assets through end of year.
— Administration pivoting from austerity toward growth-oriented fiscal policy with AI infrastructure investment, rare earth security focus, and tariff negotiation tactics.
— Critical supply-side risks: power generation and copper shortages threatening AI buildout and electrification; Elon Musk importing power plants to bypass permit restrictions.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin moved from $108,000 to $118,000 in 48–72 hours (approximately 9% in three days); implied volatility around 40%, supporting typical one-standard-deviation daily moves of ~2.5%. Visser previously called for Bitcoin doubling to $250K by year-end and now expects it to become the second-largest asset globally. Ethereum broke above $3,000, triggering altseason discussion. S&P 500, NASDAQ, gold, and Bitcoin all at all-time highs. Global M2 up $5 trillion year-to-date (vs. $11 trillion in 2020). US dollar index down ~10% from start of year but testing lower band of multi-year ascending channel. Copper at all-time highs. PMI below 50 for nearly three years (longest in history); two months above 50 earlier this year during front-loading/Trump enthusiasm.
Actionable insights
— Expect continued Bitcoin appreciation if PMIs turn higher, Fed cuts rates, dollar weakens, and traditional finance inflows accelerate; $150K+ possible by end of July if momentum holds and stock market supports it.
— Position for sector rotation away from mega-cap tech/software (MAG-7 unchanged year-to-date) into economically sensitive, commodity-linked, and AI infrastructure plays (copper, energy, rare earths) as PMI bottoms.
— Monitor power generation and copper supply constraints as primary downside risk; any disruption to AI buildout capex or electrification rollout could derail the structural bull case and require policy intervention.
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