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Jordi Visser
Bitcoin Will Breakout By Summer If This Happens | Jordi Visser
- Interest rate expectations: Market shifted from pricing three rate cuts to one potential hike within a year, driven primarily by inflation concerns rather than strong earnings alone. Cleveland Fed now-casting inflation for May estimated at 4.2% year-over-year CPI. - Geopolitical disruption: The Iran-Strait of Hormuz situation has created a three-month supply disruption affecting oil prices and global inventories. Unlike 2022, this is commodity-driven and transitory rather than structural inflation. - Semiconductor and AI trade rotation: After a massive run in memory stocks (DRAM ETF up 4–8x in a year), Visser exited Micron due to extended valuations and timing risk. Rotating into optical semis (Marvell), some Intel weakness, and away from momentum names. - Portfolio repositioning: Moving from memory/semis into commodities (silver, gold) and crypto. Silver demand expected to spike from solid-state battery adoption; expects precious metals and Bitcoin to move together before summer. - Margin pressure risks: S&P 500 profit margins artificially elevated by seven to ten mega-cap names; if these compress due to input costs or adoption slowdowns, it signals a broader market correction. - Federal spending crisis: Entitlements plus interest expense now consume all government receipts. Debt dynamics make rate hikes untenable; government likely forced toward yield curve control, bullish for Bitcoin long-term.
Dogecoin & Bitcoin Are Both Signaling Something Big? | Jordi Visser
- Stock market concentration risk: Despite new all-time highs, breadth is poor. Only ~50% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average, with as many 52-week new lows as highs. Consumer stocks (McDonald's, Nike, Whirlpool) are near lows, signaling economic weakness ahead. - Inflation regime shift underway: Month-over-month CPI at 0.6% (down from 0.9%) masks the real problem—headline inflation surprise. Import price inflation and PPI both surprised to upside. If 0.5% monthly prints continue, year-over-year inflation could exceed 6%. - Energy market structural tightness: Iran strait blockade is limiting oil supply. Global inventory drawdowns are accelerating. Unlike past crises, countries now lack excess strategic reserves. Any supply disruption (hurricane, conflict escalation) will have outsized impact given depleted buffers. - AI compute and energy demand explosion: Jensen Huang stated energy needs are 1000X larger than current supply. Inference (agent-based AI) officially began in November, creating explosive demand. Hyperscalers are over-ordering semiconductors without sufficient data center capacity to deploy them—a classic bottleneck/shortage cycle. - Dogecoin as retail sentiment indicator: Not a fundamental thesis, but a technical signal for retail re-engagement in crypto. If Dogecoin breaks out alongside Bitcoin (above 200-day moving average) and Ethereum ($2,450), it signals retail is rotating away from AI stocks toward crypto. - Fed rate dynamics locked in uncertainty: Three-month bill yields at 3.69% versus 3.8% year-over-year inflation creates negative real yields. Treasury yields above 5% historically trigger government response. Fed cannot easily raise rates due to debt service costs (~$1.2T annually); debasement may be the only policy option.