If You Don't Get Global Liquidity, You Don't Get The Everything Bubble | Michael Howell

— Global liquidity is still rising in absolute terms, but its growth rate (momentum) has peaked and is declining rapidly, signaling late-cycle conditions across markets.

— The debt maturity wall—debt issued during COVID with extended maturities—is coming due, forcing refinancing into an already tightening liquidity environment.

— 80% of all financial market transactions are debt refinancing, not new capital raising; a 5–6 year cycle mirrors average global debt maturity.

— Policymakers have shifted from direct Fed QE to Treasury QE, where government spending is funded by bill issuance, monetizing the deficit through bank balance sheet expansion.

— Bitcoin behaves as a "liquidity sponge," benefiting when liquidity expands; Howell expects three months of weakness, then a rally into 2027 as Treasury QE and declining rates support risk assets.

— The Eurozone has no safe asset and structural instability; Japan has successfully devalued its debt; China faces "Japan ten years later" and is printing money and buying gold to engineer internal devaluation.

— Global liquidity momentum peaked in late 2025 and has been declining through 2024, with bond markets, Russell 2000, and credit spreads showing stress.

— MOVE index (bond volatility) spiked from ~60 to 110–115, nearly doubling; this reduces collateral effectiveness and increases haircuts dealers demand on Treasury collateral.

— Two-year Treasury yields have jumped relative to SOFR, signaling market expectations of further rate increases; risk-adjusted Treasury yields are nearing 5.5%–5.75%.

— US Treasury 10-year yield testing 5.3%–5.7%; 30-year mortgage rates approaching 8%. Chinese 10-year government bonds lag US yields significantly, implying real Chinese growth closer to 1% than reported 4%–5%.

— Bitcoin rallied to "the 80s" as gold sits around 41 after 23 straight months of Chinese government purchases.

— Howell's call: Bitcoin may struggle for three months, then rally into 2027 as Treasury QE monetizes spending and liquidity cycle bottoms.

— Monitor the yield curve, SOFR spreads, MOVE index, credit spreads, and term premium as leading indicators of financial stress or opportunity; these warn of refinancing crises before they hit.

— Position defensively now by reducing risk and increasing fixed income allocation; prepare for the next cycle upturn by tracking when central bank liquidity momentum definitively reverses (when the black line on the liquidity-yield curve chart starts rising).

— Bitcoin's three-month weakness phase is likely ending; the real opportunity emerges when yield curve flattening shifts from bearish (long yields rising) to bullish (long yields falling), a signal to increase exposure before the 2027 rally.