OpenUSD, Bitcoin Cycles, and America’s Monetary Future

— Bitcoin touched below the 200-week moving average for the first time in four years (Mayor multiple hit, near bottom signals). October 2024 peak aligns with four-year cycle history within one week; cycle believers anticipate rally resuming late September through Q4 2025. Hosts expect potential capital rotation from cooling AI stocks (which ran 5–10X) to Bitcoin if AI narrative reverses. Circle (USDC operator) saw significant sell-off on OUSD announcement Wednesday, partial recovery Thursday but remains net down. M2 money supply at $23.1 trillion (May 2026 record); federal debt continues upward with Fed holding ~15% of treasuries (down from 25% pandemic peak).

— Market participants increasingly share conviction in the four-year calendar cycle; if self-fulfilling expectations drive autumn 2025 rally alongside AI sector pullback, capital rotation could amplify Bitcoin momentum—position accordingly for late-year seasonality. Fed ownership of treasuries has historically spiked during crises (8% pre-2008 → 25% COVID); watch for signals of monetary instability that could drive new QE and reinforce Bitcoin's long-term inflation hedge thesis. Stablecoin competition (OUSD vs. USDC/USDT) and ongoing centralized dollar tokenization confirm Bitcoin's unique positioning as uncensorable, permission-less base money; this decade-long monetary competition validates hodling thesis despite near-term price weakness.