Recent episodes
SpaceX, Strategy, Strive, US Treasury: 4 Big Bitcoin Balance Sheets
- SpaceX Bitcoin Holdings: SpaceX filed its S-1 IPO disclosure revealing 18,712 Bitcoin at a $35,000 cost basis, making it the seventh largest public Bitcoin holder, just ahead of Coinbase. The company acquired these holdings in 2021–2022 and has held them since. - MicroStrategy Surpasses BlackRock: MicroStrategy purchased another $25 million in Bitcoin and now holds more Bitcoin than BlackRock's iBit ETF (the largest Bitcoin ETF). However, roughly 70% of iBit holdings belong to retail investors, whereas MicroStrategy's holdings belong to Michael Saylor directly. - Strive Bitcoin Daily Dividends: Strive launched a Bitcoin product offering 13% daily dividend yields while maintaining a $100 share price, marking the first daily-dividend Bitcoin product in US financial history. This is similar to 1971's money market fund innovation but applied to Bitcoin within a preferred stock wrapper. - Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation: A bill with 17 co-sponsors was introduced to codify Trump's executive order and authorize the US Treasury to acquire up to 200,000 Bitcoin per year for five years, targeting 1 million total Bitcoin (roughly 5% of global supply). This is authorization only, not a directive, and passage within 12 months is uncertain. - Iran Uses Bitcoin for Maritime Insurance: Iran launched a digital insurance product for shipping cargo, settled in Bitcoin on the blockchain. This exemplifies how nation-states outside the Western financial system use Bitcoin to circumvent dollar-based sanctions and maintain sovereignty. - Market Context: Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to a seven-month low despite macro risks, as investor attention focuses heavily on AI. Long-term holder supply is approaching record highs, breaking a multi-year downtrend. The Fed signaled higher rates for longer; markets now price minimal chance of rate cuts in 2025.
Bitcoin is Winning the Debasement Trade. Quietly.
- JP Morgan report: Bitcoin is replacing gold in the "debasement trade," with Bitcoin ETF inflows positive over recent months while gold ETFs have struggled, particularly during geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. - US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve speculation: Officials including Patrick Witt (executive director of the President's Council of Advisors for Digital Assets) have hinted at significant announcements coming "in coming weeks" regarding a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with hints pointing toward summer 2025 or July 4th. - MicroStrategy's flexibility on Bitcoin sales: Michael Saylor reversed his "never sell" stance, stating the company will sell some Bitcoin opportunistically to cover Stretch product dividends (11.5% annually) and counter short sellers, while continuing net accumulation. - AI infrastructure and market concentration: Tech stocks (particularly Mag 7 plus AI-related companies) now represent ~40% of S&P 500 gains since April, comparable to historical bubbles in railroads and the dot-com era. Demand for AI is genuinely strong with 900M+ ChatGPT users, but energy bottlenecks could constrain growth. - Bitcoin technical signals: Five consecutive weekly higher lows suggest a potential bear market bottom; if Bitcoin holds above 74,000–75,000 this week, it would mark a historic pattern shift where Bitcoin didn't decline 80%+ from peak. - Bitcoiner personality profile: Bitcoiners are 10x overrepresented in the INTP/INTJ Myers-Briggs categories (50% vs. 5% general population) and score high on intuition and thinking; newer adopters show increasing diversity in personality types, suggesting broader adoption.