Is the Bottom In? Bitcoin's Record ETF Streak and the AI Money Magnet

— Bitcoin is in a 13-day ETF outflow streak (longest since spot ETF launch) and briefly dipped to $59k before recovering to low $60k range.

— Multiple on-chain signals suggest a potential cycle bottom: coins held at a loss now exceed coins in profit, price has touched the 200-week moving average at $61.3k, and long-term holder supply sits near an all-time high at 16.3 million coins.

— Each bear market downturn is becoming milder; roughly 50% of addresses remain in profit at this cycle's low versus 35% in 2015, indicating improving market structure.

— AI IPO supercycle (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) is the largest competing claim on risk capital Bitcoin has faced to date, pulling capital away from crypto assets.

— JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citi announced a private tokenized deposit network via The Clearing House—a closed bank ledger unrelated to Bitcoin or permissionless blockchains.

— Better and Coinbase launched the first Fannie Mae-backed Bitcoin mortgage, allowing borrowers to pledge Bitcoin as collateral without selling and avoiding capital gains taxes.

— Current bear-market structure is historically mild; compare 50% of addresses profitable now to 35% in 2015, suggesting reduced downside risk and durable buyer interest at lower prices.

— The Bitcoin mortgage product enables long-term holders to access liquidity without forced selling and capital gains realization—a material improvement for HODLers needing to finance major purchases like homes.

— AI capital flows are a short-to-medium-term headwind; the hosts project AI dominance could persist 5–12 months through scheduled IPOs, but warn reversals typically occur quickly—plan accumulation during periods when AI attention peaks and Bitcoin sentiment drops.