AI May Be the Biggest Bull Case for Bitcoin | Joe Consorti

— Short-term macro risks (next 3 months): War in Iran, oil shock (20% of world supply), elevated inflation (3.8% CPI in April), and potential recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed past mid-June.

— 18-month outlook: Two scenarios both lead to strong asset prices—either a recession triggers monetary stimulus, or avoided recession drives bull market on AI capex strength. War likely ends by midterms due to political incentives; asset prices expected to reach new highs.

— Equity valuations and old models breaking: Equity risk premium deeply negative (−1.4%), yet stocks rally. Traditional valuation metrics (forward PE, cyclical indicators) are losing signal because monetary debasement drives valuations more than fundamentals; "money printing will cause equities to rip largely forever."

— K-shaped economy widening: Asset owners benefit from monetary expansion; non-asset holders suffer. AI productivity gains may help by reducing incentive to offshore labor, but deflationary AI impact will be offset by monetary expansion to maintain 2% inflation target.

— Bitcoin as AI-era hedge: Bitcoin cannot be disrupted by AI, decouples from software stocks over time. Capital fleeing disrupted software equities flows to disruptors (Nvidia, OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) and non-disruptible assets (Bitcoin, gold).

— Bitcoin cycle analysis: Four-year cycle likely broken due to passive flows (IBIT accumulation, dollar-cost averaging) dominating market structure. Bottom likely set at $60K (marginally below prior cycle high); new all-time high expected Q1 2026 unless macro risks materialize.

— Prepare for two distinct timeframes: Expect volatility and downside risk over next 3 months if Strait of Hormuz stays closed; long-term bull case (18 months+) remains intact unless geopolitical resolution fails. Mid-June is the critical pivot date for recession risk assessment.

— Non-asset holders need to become asset owners: AI deflation will be offset by monetary expansion, so real purchasing power erodes for those without equity, Bitcoin, or real asset exposure. Even modest allocation to Bitcoin and equities (via consistent DCA or lump-sum entry) is preferable to holding cash or fiat savings.

— Bitcoin's decoupling from tech stocks is underway: Don't mistake current NASDAQ correlation as permanent. Bitcoin's monetary properties are AI-proof; allocate on that basis rather than near-term price action. If $60K holds and geopolitical risks ease, bull market likely already began in March; new ATH probable Q1 2026.