Recent episodes
The $45,000 Bitcoin Everyone Fears Is Getting Less Likely
- State grid framework: Johan Bergman's two-axis model plots Bitcoin on valuation (y-axis, 0–100 percentile) and trend (x-axis, positive/negative), showing Bitcoin is currently in "disbelief" territory where it has spent ~40% of its history. - 200-day moving average as technical resistance: The 200-day MA near $73,000 is identified as the "final boss" of the downtrend; trend has not yet shifted positive despite recent price recovery. - Short-term vs. rookie cost basis convergence: These on-chain metrics are nearing each other; if they don't cross during this cycle (as they did in 2022), it would signal market maturation and a structural shift in Bitcoin behavior. - Options market fragmentation: Put/call ratios on Deribit and IBIT diverge, suggesting bullishness may be exaggerated by short-term option positioning; average PCR is 0.55 (neutral). - ETF inflows reversal: After two months of outflows, Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net inflows, signaling renewed institutional demand. - $45,000 target unlikely: Market data currently favors caution; bulls expecting a drop below recent lows face headwinds from valuation metrics.
Global Macro Update: The Dollar Shortage Pushing Asia Towards Crisis
- Teaching Bitcoin and AI at USC for summer; students gained understanding of Bitcoin's proof-of-work, 21M supply cap, and positioning within global financial assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, gold totaling ~$500T+). - Global dollar shortage driving strength in DXY despite cooling CPI and PPI; India, Korea, and Japan showing financial stress—India offering leverage on foreign-currency deposits to attract overseas dollars. - Apple overtaking Nvidia as largest company; hyperscaler corporate bonds under pressure as AI capex spending outpaces revenue, forcing issuance and drawing capital from treasuries. - SpaceX fallen below IPO valuation; Korean KOSPI correcting sharply after tripling; Japanese yen at 36-year lows despite JGB stabilization efforts. - Bitcoin valuation deep value: MVRV at 1.19 (20th percentile), trading below 200-week moving average—capitulation zone but not yet underwater.
Michael Saylor Sold the Bitcoin Bottom
- Bitcoin ETF flows and sentiment shift: ETFs down only 15% from October peak while Bitcoin spot down 50%, suggesting ETF holders are holding firm rather than capitulating—a reassuring metric in the bear market. - Capital rotation from AI/tech into Bitcoin: NVIDIA down $1 trillion, semiconductor and memory stocks rolling over; founder and early employee wealth locked in overvalued equities (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) may rotate into Bitcoin once lockups expire. - On-chain metrics suggest deep value: Bitcoin trading below true market mean and near realized price (~$53k); roughly 330,000 BTC accumulated between $57k–$63k since February; half the coin supply now in loss—historically a sign selling is exhausted. - Diminishing volatility and shallower drawdown: This cycle shows a 54% drawdown (vs. 80–85% historically) and MVRV ratio peaked at 3x vs. 4–7x in prior cycles—evidence institutional adoption and market infrastructure are dampening volatility. - Michael Saylor and MSTR capitulation: Saylor sold ~3,500 BTC at lows ($57k–$58k) in late June/early July to build USD reserves; hedge funds shorted STRC heavily when coverage fell below 18 months, forcing balance-sheet fixes. Market welcomed the sale as a sign of clearer corporate finance. - Potential front-run of October cycle bottom: If four-year cycle pins a bottom in October, market may rally earlier (by September) as hedge funds fully allocate; Trump administration crypto initiatives and midterm politics could accelerate the move.
This is the Most Bitcoin I Have Ever Bought
- Bitcoin has recovered above $60,000 after tagging $58,000 lows; the key question is whether a bottom has formed. Bullish divergences are appearing on both daily and weekly charts, where price tags new lows but momentum indicators show higher lows—a sign that conditions are "getting less bad." - The **U.S. dollar has been grinding higher throughout 2026**, damaging overall liquidity and pressuring Bitcoin despite stock market strength. This dollar strength correlates with weakness in Japanese yen and Korean won, particularly as SK hynix (memory chip maker) weakens Korean equity markets. - Asia is identified as the region of greatest financial risk, with weak Japanese government bond yields and deteriorating Korean currency creating potential spillover effects. Nik is watching for major Japanese government announcements (stimulus, rate fixes, or currency intervention) over the holiday weekend. - Michael Saylor's STRC preferred shares have increased their dividend to 12% and are recovering toward par value ($100) as MicroStrategy's cash reserves support ongoing payouts. This represents "less bad" conditions forming across multiple asset classes. - Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) and Kevin Warsh (new Fed chair) are working in concert to manage volatility and keep treasury yields stable. Warsh is positioned as "undersecretary of volatility," echoing Bessent's messaging that controlled interest rates and a stable dollar are priorities to support risk markets. - TBL's proprietary liquidity indicator—built from treasuries, the dollar, interest rates, and volatility rather than Bitcoin data itself—has outperformed buy-and-hold by ~50% in 2026 by timing major moves. The indicator currently signals improved conditions.
I Built a $1 Million System in 11 Days With No Coding with Peter McCormack
- Peter McCormack built a complete podcast management system with Claude in 11 days—work that would have taken a 14-person team over a year and cost ~£1 million, with no prior coding experience. - The system automates episode tracking, guest management, sponsor workflows, task assignment, and email distribution, reducing his MailChimp workflow from one hour to one minute per send. - McCormack created "AI departments" (editorial, production, marketing, commercial) with 56 virtual employees that hold weekly meetings, grade recommendations against podcast goals, and surface actionable growth ideas. - Prompting and "skills" (domain-expert frameworks stored as markdown instructions) are the core lever: asking Claude to adopt the expertise of world-class practitioners before solving problems dramatically improves output quality. - McCormack views this moment as a **printing-press event for software**—individuals can now build custom, complex applications at near-zero cost, threatening aggregators (hotels.com, Squarespace) while decentralizing software capability. - There is a short window to "state your claim" in AI-augmented workflows before established winners emerge; learning the tools takes days, not weeks.
Inside SpaceX's $60 Billion Bet on Cursor with Charlie Hu
- Singapore is emerging as a unique AI hub with high density of major tech corporations (Google, AWS, Meta, Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance) and venture capital, offering neutral ground between US and Chinese AI ecosystems. - The trend in AI is shifting from pure software agents to **physical AI**—hardware-integrated solutions like PLAUD that combine digital intelligence with real-world applications. - SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of Cursor signals major exit valuations driven by developer community, network effects, and intangible assets rather than profitability alone. - The US government's suspension of Anthropic's Fable 5 marks the first direct government intervention in AI model deployment, raising concerns about supply chain risk and creating potential parallels to the 1990s crypto wars. - Coco AI was founded to solve multi-agent coordination and persistent memory challenges in enterprise AI workflows—enabling specialized agents across different business functions to collaborate without human bottlenecks. - Charlie's paradigm shift: **AI is fundamentally a process of converting physical energy into digital intelligence**, reframing data centers, the US-China competition, and SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation as an energy abundance story.
What Bitcoin Twitter Is Signaling About the Market Bottom w/ Michael Sullivan
I Woke Up Homeless With $75 When the Banks Took Everything | with Tony Yazbek
- Self-custody as fundamental: Bitcoin's core value is personal ownership and sovereignty; anything wrapped in legacy finance (ETFs, exchange balances) is not true Bitcoin ownership. - Lebanon 2019 collapse: Tony Yazbek woke homeless with ~$75 after banks confiscated all savings overnight, catalyzing his Bitcoin conviction and The Bitcoin Way mission. - Bitcoin as money, not investment: Treating Bitcoin as an investment denominated in dollars creates emotional volatility and poor decisions; framing it as a currency eliminates this distraction. - Volatility is a measurement illusion: "Volatility" reflects dollar weakness, not Bitcoin instability—just as you don't track peso or rupee exchange rates against the dollar daily, Bitcoin's dollar price should be irrelevant to holders. - Hardware and air-gap storage: The Bitcoin Way curates open-source, Bitcoin-only hardware wallets that never connect to a computer, eliminating most cybersecurity attack vectors. - Education and jurisdictional sovereignty: True individual sovereignty requires protecting money (self-custody), privacy online, and optionally jurisdictional options; The Bitcoin Way teaches the complete circle.
The Iran War and the Fight for Energy Dominance with Tanvi Ratna
- Iran positioned as the critical "node" in a global realignment of power, with implications for U.S. energy dominance, NATO restructuring, and the reordering of trade corridors. - European military command overhaul: U.S. handing operational leadership of NATO theaters to European commanders (Poland, Italy, Germany) while maintaining the nuclear umbrella and weapons supply. - Russia systematically pushed out of Latin America, the Middle East (Syria, Iran), and Europe's energy markets through sanctions, Ukrainian refinery attacks, and U.S. LNG expansion. - Saudi-Israel normalization remains the unresolved linchpin for Middle East stability; Saudi domestic opposition to Israeli ties blocks the broader "Board of Peace" framework. - U.S. infrastructure pivot: new energy hubs, LNG ports, and data centers being built in Eastern Europe (Croatia, Poland, Balkans) to replace Russian supply and counter Belt and Road corridors. - India-Russia energy relationship under pressure as U.S. seeks to realign India away from the Russia-China axis; Quad maritime surveillance now tracking shadow fleets.
SpaceX Goes Public Tomorrow: Inside the $45 Billion Data Center with John Tinsman
- AI compute data centers as profit machines: SpaceX's Colossus One data center (built in 122 days for $3–4 billion) is leased to Anthropic for $45 billion over three years, yielding over 10x ROI. Google subsequently signed a lease at 52% higher compute prices, signaling strong and sustained demand. - Semiconductor earnings growth without valuation bubble: Micron grew earnings 752% YoY at a PE ratio of 4; SanDisk earned $33 per share while trading at $30. Companies like Nvidia and AMD have shifted from single-digit to ~80% profit margins as sales scale, contradicting the narrative that high stock prices reflect a bubble. - Agentic AI phase driving five-fold demand increase: The shift from generative AI (question-answer) to agentic AI (task-execution) requires five times more CPU and memory. Adoption remains early outside Silicon Valley, implying substantial future upside as the technology diffuses. - SpaceX valuation and revenue trajectory: With $18 billion baseline revenue, SpaceX is contracted to receive $15 billion (Anthropic), $11 billion (Google), and $26 billion (xAI) annually—totaling ~150% YoY revenue growth before Starlink scaling or launch service improvements. A $10 trillion market cap (5x upside from current valuation) is defensible on growth metrics. - Credit market strength and distributed prosperity: Investment-grade bonds from hyperscalers are being issued at historically tight spreads; banks are accumulating these assets, creating liquidity circulation. Data center buildouts in middle America (Iowa, Tennessee) are generating employment for electricians, welders, and support services, reversing decades of coastal wealth concentration. - Portfolio construction philosophy: High-growth, low-marginal-cost, large-cap profitable companies (NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC, Micron) outperform indices. The AOTG and AOTS ETFs target companies with highest probability of continued earnings acceleration and innovation velocity.
AI Is Breaking the Power Grid, and Bitcoin Is the Fix
- AI data centers and grid instability: AI's inflexible, unpredictable demand (especially inference AI) strains electrical grids already struggling to balance variable renewable energy supply, forcing operators to choose between decarbonization and grid stability. - Bitcoin mining as flexible load: Unlike AI, Bitcoin mining can ramp up and down instantly to absorb surplus renewable energy or grid stress, making it the most flexible demand source available—superior to batteries in duration, modularity, and cost. - Grid stabilization revenue model: European miners like Flexionics (Sweden) now earn 58% of revenue from grid stabilization services, paying negative $0.02/kWh for energy, proving Bitcoin mining viability independent of block rewards. - Energy trilemma solution: Bitcoin mining uniquely solves the impossible balance of sustainability, energy equity, and grid security simultaneously—something no other technology achieves without subsidies or grid infrastructure costs. - Mainstream adoption pathway: Grid operators recognize Bitcoin's value but avoid public acknowledgment due to past "gas-lighting"; adoption will accelerate through energy crisis necessity rather than monetary philosophy, creating a non-divisive narrative that unites political factions. - Academic and operational validation: 30 peer-reviewed papers and seven active grid operators confirm Bitcoin mining stabilizes grids, monetizes wasted renewable energy, and accelerates ROI on renewable projects by ~50%.
The Bitcoin Power Law Points to $300,000 w/ Dr. Stephen Perrenod
- Power law and log periodicity framework: Bitcoin's price follows a power law with a 5.8 exponent, modulated by log-periodic oscillations spaced at intervals that double on a logarithmic timescale (lambda ≈ 2.05), not fixed four-year cycles. - Four-year cycle rebuttal: The canonical four-year halving cycle is overstated. Only 2013–2017 represents a clean four-year interval; 2011 breaks the pattern, 2017–2021 fits as a harmonic (not fundamental), and 2025 never reached a comparable bubble peak. - Harmonics and future structure: The fundamental cycle spacing is approximately 8–9 years (predicted peak: 2026–2028), with intermediate bubbles appearing at geometric mean intervals. A mini-bubble occurred in 2019 as a harmonic. - Log periodicity contribution and recovery timeline: Currently in negative oscillation territory; the signal crosses zero into positive contribution in early 2027, with upside potential through 2028–2029. Recovery time from drawdown correlates to depth; February 2025 low suggests late August rebound target. - Coupling constant and convergence: Beta (power law exponent) and lambda (log-periodic spacing) are related via a coupling constant (≈4), which has stabilized over time, reflecting mature network dynamics akin to renormalization group behavior in physics. - Integration with financial conditions: Log-periodicity improves structural Bitcoin analysis and forecasting out to ~2.5 years, complementing short-term liquidity and financial conditions metrics (move index, dollar index) effective at 1–6 month horizons.
AI May Be the Biggest Bull Case for Bitcoin | Joe Consorti
- Short-term macro risks (next 3 months): War in Iran, oil shock (20% of world supply), elevated inflation (3.8% CPI in April), and potential recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed past mid-June. - 18-month outlook: Two scenarios both lead to strong asset prices—either a recession triggers monetary stimulus, or avoided recession drives bull market on AI capex strength. War likely ends by midterms due to political incentives; asset prices expected to reach new highs. - Equity valuations and old models breaking: Equity risk premium deeply negative (−1.4%), yet stocks rally. Traditional valuation metrics (forward PE, cyclical indicators) are losing signal because monetary debasement drives valuations more than fundamentals; "money printing will cause equities to rip largely forever." - K-shaped economy widening: Asset owners benefit from monetary expansion; non-asset holders suffer. AI productivity gains may help by reducing incentive to offshore labor, but deflationary AI impact will be offset by monetary expansion to maintain 2% inflation target. - Bitcoin as AI-era hedge: Bitcoin cannot be disrupted by AI, decouples from software stocks over time. Capital fleeing disrupted software equities flows to disruptors (Nvidia, OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) and non-disruptible assets (Bitcoin, gold). - Bitcoin cycle analysis: Four-year cycle likely broken due to passive flows (IBIT accumulation, dollar-cost averaging) dominating market structure. Bottom likely set at $60K (marginally below prior cycle high); new all-time high expected Q1 2026 unless macro risks materialize.
Global Macro Update: Is Japan Breaking the Bond Market?
- Bond market stress: Global bond markets experiencing significant selloff driven by rising inflation expectations, with Japanese and German yields leading the move. U.S. Treasury yields rising above 4.5% on the 10-year, but showing relative stability through a flattening curve rather than bear steepening. - Oil shock and inflation driver: War in Iran and Persian Gulf supply chain disruptions pushing crude oil prices higher, creating demand-driven inflation expectations globally. ISM manufacturing prices paid spiking well before recent geopolitical tensions, indicating CapEx-driven demand inflation in the U.S. - Bitcoin price and technicals: Bitcoin down 27% trailing 12 months but even with S&P 500 over five years (both +79%). Trading near 200-day moving average with declining slope; TBL Liquidity indicator turned green in early April near $70k lows. Bitcoin to Gold ratio at 17x, defending low teens despite gold's strong run. - U.S. economic strength vs. global risk: Labor market solid with rising initial jobless claims downtrend and job hiring spike (JOLTS data). Atlanta Fed GDP Now at 4% expected growth. Housing rent inflation bottoming signals underlying demand strength. AI/CapEx boom driving nominal growth, making debt service more manageable for the U.S. - Global financial crisis risk: Potential crisis brewing outside the U.S., not within it. Rising U.S. dollar pressuring non-U.S. debtors forced to service debt in dollars while local revenues stagnate. G7 finance ministers produced no resolution. Corporate credit spreads tight with strong bond demand. - Liquidity and safe-haven flows: SOFR rates declining toward policy floor, money market fund inflows spiking—signs of flight to safety rather than U.S. financial stress. Treasury market showing demand for short-term safety instruments.
BREAKING: CME Launches Compute Futures, The New Oil
- AI compute as economic fuel: AI tokens function like oil and gas for the digital economy. Spending at OpenAI and Anthropic is accelerating, making token compute servicing a primary driver of global economic growth for years ahead. - CME launches compute futures market: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange created a futures contract market for computing power, signaling financialization of compute as a critical input cost across all industries. This validates compute as a core asset class. - Inflationary pressures from AI capex: Hyperscalers are funding massive capital expenditure through bond issuance, creating new money in the system. Demand for inputs like RAM is crowding out availability for consumer devices, raising costs and eliminating low-margin phone production. - Bitcoin supported by AI-driven liquidity expansion: Bitcoin will be bolstered over the AI revolution's lifespan because liquidity growth from increased production and spending will raise aggregate demand for scarce assets. - Return of geopolitics and gold: Deutsche Bank's "Return of History" thesis describes a shift from post-Cold War certainty to geopolitical uncertainty. Central banks buying gold signals the end of dollar hegemony stability. - US-China economic cooperation amid competition: Trump's delegation of major CEOs visiting China indicates pragmatic economic engagement despite ongoing tech races, military buildup, and potential Taiwan conflict. Both cooperation and competition can coexist.
UAE QUITS OPEC: The Offshore Dollar Era Is Changing with Matt Dines
- UAE leaving OPEC signals dollar system restructuring, not de-dollarization. The move reflects a realignment toward direct central bank swap lines with the Federal Reserve rather than offshore dollar arrangements, indicating countries are plugging into a reformed U.S.-led dollar order centered in New York and Washington. - Money market un-inversion marks late-cycle economic inflection. The three-month and six-month Treasury bill spread has been inverted for 130 weeks—four times longer than any period since 1991—and recently cleared, signaling entry into a reflation phase where all funding trades carry positive carry and credit expansion accelerates. - Bank of Japan held rates steady as cooperative geopolitical signal, deliberately avoiding rate hikes despite inflation to prevent money market stress during commodity supply chain tightness. This supports the broader dollar system coordination and demonstrates central bank alignment amid conflict dynamics. - UK sovereign debt crisis worsens despite global ceasefires. Unlike prior conflict ceasefires that eased yields, UK gilt yields are rising toward 5% despite recent Iran ceasefire, reflecting structural constraints: the UK lacks manufacturing capacity, domestic growth potential, and commodity access to compete in tightened global trade. - Geopolitical conflict escalation directly impacts sovereign debt markets. The five major ceasefires (Gaza, Israel-Hezbollah, Iran) show diminishing returns in yield relief, with UK gilts behaving opposite to expectations—a warning signal that structural pressures on certain players exceed conflict-resolution benefits. - "Pax Silica" vision represents cohesive American-led global order built on semiconductors, AI, energy, critical minerals, stable coins, and Bitcoin as foundational layers. This contrasts with competing degrowth narratives and positions the U.S. as senior partner in global trade franchise for the first time in modern history.
The Money Printer Is Back On with Lyn Alden
- AI Impact on Employment: AI is suppressing white-collar job creation and enabling automation, similar to how manufacturing automation affected blue-collar work in the 80s-90s. One person can now oversee work previously requiring five, but physical robotics adoption remains slow (Roomba example cited). - Software Stock Repricing: SaaS valuations face structural pressure due to AI competition and reduced switching costs. Companies built on recurring revenue models are being repriced downward; not obsolete, but less certain and thus warrant lower multiples (30x to 10-15x earnings). - Government-AI Relations: Anthropic rejected Pentagon contracts over two red lines: no mass surveillance of US citizens and no autonomous kill decisions. Pentagon shifted to OpenAI; geopolitical and ethical tensions around AI deployment are escalating. - Fiscal Deficit Trajectory: US debt will grind from ~$40 trillion to ~$50 trillion over five years. Pressures against deficit reduction are structural (aging population, defense spending, entitlements). Interest payments consume an increasing share of tax revenue. - Monetary Policy Shift: Central banks are transitioning from balance sheet reduction back to gradual expansion in line with nominal GDP growth. The Fed may use yield curve control as a last resort; softer methods (standing repo facilities, liquidity provision) are more likely near-term. - Money Supply & Inflation Distribution: Broad money supply growth (~7% annually, offset by ~3% productivity) produces inflation concentrated in scarce assets (Bitcoin, gold, real estate, waterfront property) rather than abundant goods (electronics, automatable services).
The Everything Bubble Is Over: Michael Howell’s Warning for 2026
- Liquidity cycle peaked Sept–Oct 2024 and is weakening; cyclical top already in place, distinct from recent geopolitical shocks - Money flows downstream: economies depend on liquidity/money flow; $10 oil increase reduces global liquidity ~3%; geopolitical events are secondary to monetary cycles - Debt-to-liquidity matters more than debt-to-GDP because debt must be refinanced; a 2x debt-to-liquidity ratio is equilibrium; breaches trigger crises - Two refinancing legs: (1) collateral markets turning debt into liquidity via repo; (2) direct debt refinancing—both stressed by rising MOVE index, widening spreads, declining term premia - Debt maturity wall approaching: ~$45 trillion of advanced-economy debt needs refinancing by 2030; AI capex and government spending are sucking liquidity from financial markets into real economy - Fed will eventually return to support bond markets (timing unclear, likely 2027+); private sector cannot absorb scale of refinancing alone