#783 What's Keeping Bitcoin At $43k? w/Will Clemente
1/15/2022 · 23 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin price structure is showing higher lows around $42,500 after a bounce from $40K support; near-term resistance to watch at $45,700–$46K range.
— Open interest remains elevated on derivatives, signaling potential for a liquidation event; shorts have begun closing on the recent rally but overall leverage is still high.
— Bitcoin entity adjusted dormancy flow has entered a buy zone for only the sixth time in Bitcoin's history, a rare signal indicating older, experienced holders are slowing coin spending—suggesting accumulation phases ahead.
— Retail Bitcoin supply continues trending upward across all market cycles, showing consistent dollar-cost averaging behavior independent of price; this contradicts claims of wealth concentration.
— Hash rate has recovered to all-time highs after China's summer mining exodus, proving network resilience and decentralization; hash rate appears to follow price appreciation rather than lead it.
— Global adoption metrics including net entity growth and user numbers trend upward regardless of bear markets, with emerging market adoption driven by currency debasement rather than speculation.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin is trading in the low $40,000s with a macro support at $40K previously untested until this week. A higher low is forming around $42,500. Near-term resistance levels are $45,700–$46K (prior range lows), with potential secondary resistance at $53K. Open interest on derivatives remains very high—about 80% of the leverage built over the past month remains unwiped. Dormancy flow has entered a buy zone (only sixth time ever), historically associated with 15–20% further downside risk to ~$30K, though recent price action suggests possible exit from this zone. Retail holdings of Bitcoin continue to increase, even during bear markets, indicating structural demand.
Actionable insights
— Scale buys incrementally as dormancy flow signals a capitulation zone; if the buy zone deepens, risk extends toward $30K, but dormancy entry marks a historically strong accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.
— Monitor derivatives liquidation triggers around $45,700–$46K resistance; if open interest unwinds sharply at this level, expect either a rejection or a squeeze upward to $53K depending on positioning.
— Track retail supply metrics and adoption catalysts (e.g., El Salvador's Bitcoin bond, emerging-market currency weakness) as leading indicators of structural demand independent of short-term price cycles.
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