Guest
Will Clemente
#638 Bitcoin New ATH By September?! w/ Will Clemente
- Will Clemente analyzes on-chain metrics showing miners accumulating Bitcoin post-China ban, with hash rate slowly returning and profitability remaining elevated compared to pre-migration levels. - Realized cap hitting all-time highs signals new capital inflows at higher prices and coins moving from loss into profit, indicating market health rather than capitulation. - Long-term holder supply shock ratio accelerating at a faster rate and from a higher base than 2017, suggesting strong accumulation and price floor-setting behavior. - Liquid supply shock ratio and entity-adjusted NUPL show no signs of bull market euphoria or dead-cat-bounce exit liquidity, contradicting 2017 end-of-cycle dynamics. - Derivatives metrics including futures leverage ratio and funding rates remain healthy relative to market cap, with no signs of dangerous overleveraging. - Stablecoin exchange reserves indicate meaningful dry powder still available on exchanges, suggesting capital ready to deploy into the market.
#632 Bitcoin Supply Shock w/ Will Clemente
- On-chain accumulation metrics remain strong across multiple measures: the liquid supply shock ratio, exchange supply shock ratio, and long-term holder supply shock ratio all point to aggressive buying by strong hands rather than weak-hand capitulation. - SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has bounced off the one threshold and appears to be stabilizing above it, suggesting healthy market structure and continued spot-driven rallies without euphoria or leverage. - Funding rates and open interest remain far below February levels despite similar price action, confirming this rally is driven by spot buying and big whales rather than leveraged speculation. - Hash ribbon buy signal—a historical macro timeframe buy signal based on 30-day and 60-day hash rate moving averages—just triggered, indicating miner capitulation has ended and sell pressure is subsiding. - Miners have flipped to accumulation mode following record difficulty adjustments and remain extremely profitable, holding coins rather than selling. - Supply distribution has shifted healthily over the past four to five years: whales (1,000+ BTC holders) have dropped from ~40% to ~25% of supply, while retail and minnows have increased, reducing price manipulation risk.
#620 The Bitcoin Supply Squeeze Thesis With Will Clemente
- Whales and institutions are actively accumulating Bitcoin while newer market participants continue to sell at losses during the reaccumulation phase. - On-chain metrics have strongly diverged from price for two to three weeks, but are now reconverging; historically such divergences precede significant price movements once information reprices. - The newly created 365-day RSI metric tracking illiquid supply has flashed a buy signal after full capitulation in late May, with vertical accumulation momentum unprecedented in Bitcoin's history. - Exchange outflows remain aggressive, with coins being rapidly withdrawn from exchanges and moved to cold storage or custody, signaling strong buying intent and reduced selling pressure. - Miners have accumulated Bitcoin for almost two months following difficulty adjustments and hash rate drops, boosting profitability and reducing sell pressure from this key supply source. - Net realized profit has turned positive again as coins move back into profit territory, reducing the risk of capitulation selling from long-term holders.
#610 The On-Chain Metrics OG w/ David Puell & Will Clemente
- David Puell outlined the three waves of on-chain analytics evolution: early pioneers (Willy Wu, Nick Carter, 2016–17), second-wave researchers like himself who created metrics such as MVRV and SOPR, and the current data service provider wave (Glassnode, CryptoQuant, Coinmetrics) racing to extract signal from noise. - MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) compares current market cap to the cost basis of all holders, signaling overextension when above realized cap and accumulation opportunity when below it. - Funding rates on perpetual contracts provide more reliable signals than on-chain metrics alone, with negative funding and sustained negative premiums indicating demand for spot over derivatives and bullish conditions. - Institutional participation has reshaped market structure: Grayscale arbitrage unwind and profit-taking after 3x–6x returns collapsed new capital inflows; macro events (COVID, black swans) can override technical signals but do not invalidate long-term on-chain accumulation trends. - Current market shows a major divergence between deteriorating price action and bullish on-chain signals (net illiquid supply, negative funding, SOPR neutral)—the largest disconnect since COVID, suggesting potential for a large volatility squeeze once price reprices the underlying accumulation. - On-chain analytics are most useful for active managers confirming macro theses and swing traders planning positions over weeks to months; permanent holders benefit less from short-term metrics, while day traders should focus on order books and funding rates.
#603: Bitcoin Supercycle or the Last Bitcoin Cycle? With Willy Woo and Will Clemente
- On-chain analysis fundamentals: Willie Woo pioneered NVT and similar metrics starting in 2016; on-chain data shows real investor movements, capital flows, and coin age rather than just price and volume technicals. - Supply shock mechanics: Coins depleting from spot exchange inventories create bullish pressure; recent pullback sent coins back to exchanges (reverse shock), but they are now moving off again into strong holders. - Current market divergence: Price action is bearish and sideways while on-chain metrics show massive accumulation by long-term investors—similar setup to October 2020 before a major rally. - Institutional and nation-state buying: Corporations, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth entities now hold significant Bitcoin; their concentrated decision-making reduces on-chain signal but represents substantial locked supply. - Halving and mining sell pressure: Next halving drops miner issuance to 450 BTC/day; exchange fees and ETF redemptions now rival mining as a constant sell pressure vector in the market. - Cycles and market structure evolution: Traditional four-year halving cycles may be weakening as Bitcoin matures; derivatives, leverage products, and leverage create complex volatility patterns unlike historical rallies.
#597: Bitcoin Whales Are Selling To Retail Investors w/ Will Clemente and Checkmate
- Whale accumulation dynamics: Bitcoin long-term holders (75% of supply) are accumulating rather than distributing, unlike previous bear markets where they held 58–60%, suggesting a stronger foundation despite current price consolidation in the $29K–$40K range. - China mining ban impact: Hash rate dropped to late 2019 lows with 50% of mining competition forced offline; remaining miners become 2x more profitable once difficulty adjusts, creating complex supply dynamics as some miners sell treasuries while others reduce sales. - Capitulation events and supply absorption: Two back-to-back capitulation events (each over $3B in realized losses) occurred in May, yet the $30K floor held twice, indicating strong accumulation despite extraordinary selling pressure and multiple sources of negative sentiment. - Short-term versus long-term holder divergence: Short-term holders are selling at losses while long-term holders are not offloading, a pattern seen at mid-cycle consolidation phases (mid-2013, late 2016) but also in bear markets; distinguishing between them requires watching long-term holder spending behavior on relief rallies. - Leverage flush-out in derivatives markets: Approximately 60% of tracked leverage was wiped out in May; remaining 40% likely represents risk-neutral cash-and-carry trades, shifting market dynamics back to spot-driven activity and reducing cascading liquidation risk. - On-chain metrics as macro framework: On-chain analysis reveals objective supply and demand dynamics; it functions best for long-term investors tracking trends (e.g., long-term holder distribution patterns, exchange inflows, speculative coin weakness) rather than short-term trading signals.
#592 Strong Hands Are Aggressively Accumulating Bitcoin w/ Will Clemente
- Strong hands (long-term holders) are accumulating Bitcoin while short-term speculators are selling, creating a bullish divergence between buying behavior and falling prices. - The illiquid supply change metric shows $95,800 in supply movement to experienced holders over 30 days, indicating institutional and whale-level accumulation. - New entity (user) growth is exploding upward, primarily retail participants under 10 BTC, suggesting mass adoption in regions like Latin America. - SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) and short-term holder capitulation metrics indicate panic selling from inexperienced market participants. - Miners in China have reduced holdings by only ~5,125 BTC, suggesting their selling pressure is not a major driver of the recent price decline despite hash rate collapse. - Clemente developed a new "OTC desk outflow stock RSI signal" (proposed "Clemente signal") showing ~90% accuracy in timing buy and sell signals over the past year.
#586 Bitcoin Is WILDLY Oversold! w/ Will Clemente
- Bitcoin is oscillating between $32,000 and $40,000 in a sideways "crab market," with the 200-day moving average at ~$42K serving as a key resistance level and $30K as major support. - NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) is sitting at a critical inflection point between 0.6–0.8, historically indicating either bull market continuation or significant downside; the next few weeks will reveal direction. - Long-term holders are now buying and offsetting selling pressure from short-term holders, signaling experienced market participants view Bitcoin as undervalued. - Exchange flows have turned negative, indicating accumulation as coins move off exchanges into custody solutions, likely institutional buying. - On-chain metrics including MVRV, long-term SOPR, and NVT signal show Bitcoin is deeply oversold by historical standards, but any price recovery may take weeks to play out. - New user registrations are spiking on-chain despite the bear-case narrative, suggesting retail interest persists despite price weakness.
#580: Will Clemente on the Re-Accumulation Phase Is Almost Over
- Bitcoin price action remained ranged between $31K–$37K this week, with a breakdown from a triangle pattern that quickly reversed, showing strong bounces off range lows and improved reaction to news sentiment. - Short-term holders have exhausted selling pressure while long-term holders are aggressively accumulating, marking a potential shift toward the end of the reaccumulation phase. - SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) formed a bullish divergence with higher lows in the oscillator despite lower lows in price, suggesting improved accumulation dynamics. - Miners, particularly Chinese pools including Poolin, have begun selling modest amounts (roughly 5,000 BTC) amid China regulatory pressure, likely to relocate operations or secure capital. - Futures open interest spiked on downside moves, triggering shorts that were liquidated on the sharp reversal, demonstrating how Bitcoin tends to move against crowded positioning. - Plan B's stock-to-flow model is at its largest historical deflection to the downside but remains within the lower band; the recent bounce suggests potential validation if price recovers in coming weeks.
#574 Will Bitcoin Break Out Of The Accumulation Phase?! w/ Will Clemente
- Bitcoin is range-bound between $32,000 and $40,000 with low volume and no clear directional conviction heading into the weekend. - On-chain metrics show futures open interest remains flat since the liquidation event two to three weeks ago, with minimal new contract openings. - Stable coin supply ratio has declined sharply over the past two weeks, indicating dry powder waiting on the sidelines for directional confirmation. - UTXO realized price distribution reveals three distinct price clusters: $53–59K, $32–40K, and $7–11K, serving as support and resistance zones. - Newer market participants (coins aged 1–6 months) are selling at a loss, while long-term holders accumulate; older cohorts remain largely inactive. - Retail holders continue accumulating at record pace while whales (1,000+ BTC) are reshuffling and scaling down positions.
#568 Is The Bitcoin Sell-Off Over?? w/ Will Clemente
- Will Clemente provided an on-chain analysis of Bitcoin's recent price movements, highlighting a clear rotation from short-term holders (who are selling) to long-term holders (who continue accumulating). - Exchange flows have reversed from inflows to outflows, indicating renewed accumulation rather than distribution at current price levels. - New entities joining the Bitcoin network have resumed growth after trending downward for a month, suggesting retail interest at lower prices. - Miner accumulation has plateaued since mid-May, with notable selling pressure from Chinese mining pools, particularly Pulin. - The SOPR (Spend Output Profit Ratio) has recovered into net profit territory, signaling capitulation has likely already occurred and the market is healing. - Key technical resistance levels are the 200-day moving average (~$40,750–$41,000), $50,000, $53,000, and $59,000–$60,000; key support is $30,000.
#562: Bitcoin Crashed! Who Was Buying And Selling?! Livestream w/ Will Clemente
- Exchange flow reversal preceded the crash, with coins moving onto exchanges at all-time highs on Tuesday before the Wednesday dump, suggesting distribution and selling intent. - Young coin whales (likely funds from the $10K–$20K price band) were the primary sellers, not long-term holders, indicating different market dynamics than typical cycle tops. - A cascade of $303 million in leveraged long liquidations within 10 minutes on Wednesday amplified the price decline through repeated stop-loss hits and forced selling. - On-chain metrics—NUPL, SOPR, realized cap, and MVRV—show deep but not euphoric capitulation; the bull market remains intact because overheated zone thresholds were not breached. - Stablecoin inflows ($500M+ USDT to exchanges post-dip) and OTC desk spikes signal institutional buying pressure and capital ready to deploy at lower prices. - Volume distribution above $40K shows unprecedented density of coins changing hands at $54K–$60K range, unlike typical bull market tops where distribution is sparse.
#556 Will Clemente on What Happened to Bitcoin When Elon Tweeted
- Elon Musk tweeted about Bitcoin's environmental impact on Wednesday evening, triggering $200 million in long liquidations within 10 minutes and a sharp price dump to ~$46,000. - On-chain data showed 19,259 BTC moved onto exchanges hours before the dump, followed by massive outflows afterward, suggesting possible foreknowledge of the event. - SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) hit its biggest drop of the entire bull market during the correction, historically a reliable bottom-timing indicator. - Bitcoin bounced off two major bull-market support levels: the 128-day moving average and the 21-week moving average, without closing below them. - Funding rates went negative during the crash but recovered sharply within 7–8 hours, and $1.8 billion in futures open interest was liquidated, flushing leverage from the system. - Miners and long-term holders continue accumulating; the 100–1000 BTC cohort (high-net-worth individuals) is buying despite larger whale positions trimming.
#550: Will Clemente on Bitcoin Coiling Like A Spring
- Bitcoin's on-chain metrics show consolidation at the $1 trillion market cap level, a midway point typical of bull cycles, with over 15% of supply in motion validating this price threshold. - Realized cap and on-chain volume are rising, indicating new investors and strong hands accumulating coins from weaker participants rather than the parabolic FOMO typical of cycle tops. - Miners are actively accumulating Bitcoin rather than selling, with miner net position change positive for over a month—a bullish signal given miners' deep capital commitment to the asset. - Older Bitcoin holders have sharply reduced selling activity post-Tesla announcement, suggesting belief this cycle may differ from previous ones due to corporate adoption. - Stablecoin supply increased $6 billion in 10 days (Tether and USDC), with USDC showing a 22% one-day spike indicating US institutional capital deployment. - Spent output age bands show weak hands (newer participants) selling to strong hands, with all-time highs in the one-week to one-month cohort this week—classic consolidation behavior.
#542 Will Clemente on The Science Behind A Price Drawdown
- Leverage-driven sell-off: Excessive leverage in Bitcoin futures markets (high funding rates, leveraged longs) created fragility; a 9,000 BTC inflow to Binance triggered a cascade of liquidations totaling $1.84 billion in roughly one to two hours. - Liquidation mechanics: When leveraged longs hit liquidation prices, forced selling accelerates downward spirals; similarly, short liquidations on bounces can spike upward violence ($88 million in shorts liquidated in two hours). - On-chain support levels: Major on-chain volume zones (particularly 47K–50K and 53K) provided structural support during the drawdown; dormancy metrics showed long-term holders did not sell, only newer market entrants capitulated. - Miner accumulation and hash ribbon signals: Miners continued accumulating through the dip despite losses, signaling conviction; Charles Edwards' hash ribbon briefly entered "flash buy zone," indicating capitulation. - Bull thesis remains intact: Long-term macro indicators show no signs of cycle top; the drawdown mirrors typical mid-cycle corrections (e.g., 2017 saw multiple 30%+ corrections); entity net growth remains parabolic, suggesting retail adoption is still mid-cycle. - Market psychology: Sentiment flips violently; overlevered positions on either side (long or short) create whipsaw conditions, but SOPR metrics below 1.0 and violent upside moves indicate capitulation has already occurred.
#522: Will Clemente on Bitcoin Analytics
- Will Clemente, an 18-year-old finance major, discovered Bitcoin during the March 2020 market downturn after realizing value investing models assume sound money that no longer exists. - Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply and programmatic monetary policy create a revolutionary constant in finance, contrasting with commodities like gold where price increases incentivize additional production. - On-chain data shows a historic and dramatic decline in coins held on exchanges, driven by institutional adoption, miner accumulation, and investors capturing arbitrage spreads through over-collateralization. - The "Bitcoin black hole effect" describes how supply scarcity, halving cycles, and growing institutional demand create a price squeeze that could eventually reprice traditional assets downward. - Contango (futures trading at a premium to spot price) enables arbitrage yields of 14–15% annualized, attracting fixed-income investors and further locking coins out of circulation through collateral requirements. - Inflationary monetary policy and universal basic income undermine savers and workers, making adoption of sound money like Bitcoin essential for economic fairness and social stability.