Bitcoin Just Went Vertical (Is The Bear Over?)
8/12/2026 · 22 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin rallied 22–25% in a concentrated four-day move to near $80,000, reaching levels last touched in early 2025.
— Multi-year trendline from FTX lows (late 2022) through the October 2023 ETF bull market provided technical support; breakdown in late June marked capitulation before recovery.
— Liquidity environment, measured via TBL's liquidity indicator, shifted supportive in early August; Bitcoin's largest returns historically occur in brief, concentrated bursts that traders cannot afford to miss.
— Japanese yen intervention and emerging US–Japan monetary alliance—not Treasury buyback alone—drove the move; reflects broader currency war and attempt to defend sovereign bond markets.
— Gold surged to $5,500 and Bitcoin–gold correlation is rising sharply, suggesting both assets are responding to the same macro inflation and monetary policy drivers.
— Kevin Warsh's role in lowering front-end US Treasury rates is the critical lever to manage unsustainable debt-service burden; rate cuts would steepen the yield curve and buy more time.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin price $77,300 on Friday, August 21st; block height 963,465. Weekly gain of 22.5%; four-to-five-day move of approximately 25% (from ~$63,000 to just under $80,000). Trendline support held across two-and-a-half months (early June through late August). Bullish divergence flagged weeks prior: lower lows on price, higher lows on momentum. Gold reached $5,500 in 2025 and bottomed alongside Bitcoin on June 30th. Bitcoin–gold rolling correlation moving higher across short and medium-term timeframes; both assets spiking together over the last three days.
Actionable insights
— Monitor TBL liquidity indicator and DXY/JPY levels as they are the primary drivers of Bitcoin rallies; large moves are rare and concentrated—missing them costs significant annual returns.
— Rising Bitcoin–gold correlation suggests both assets hedge the same systemic risk (currency debasement, debt unsustainability); holding both may offer diversified exposure to macro inflation hedges rather than betting on Bitcoin outperformance.
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