Everyone Gave Up On Bitcoin At Exactly The Wrong Time | Jordi Visser

— Bitcoin bottoming signals: Technical divergences suggest Bitcoin may have hit lows; institutional selling in Bitcoin ETFs continues, but the narrative around further decline is aging. Key resistance at the 200-day moving average (~$70k) could signal the start of a new phase.

— AI mid-cycle slowdown: The "easy money" phase of AI is ending. Infrastructure buildout faces real headwinds—government involvement (model shutdowns, data center politics), Korean model competition, and regulatory scrutiny are tempering expectations for effortless gains in AI stocks.

— Multiple compression vs. earnings decline: AI company earnings remain strong, but valuations are compressing as volatility shakes out retail traders. Broadening adoption into healthcare, insurance, and enterprise will drive next phase, not infrastructure alone.

— Memory and Micron as AI bottleneck: Memory chips (not processors) are the true constraint for AI scaling. Expect normalized 30–40% annual returns instead of 30–40% weekly moves; SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron will remain critical.

— Fed policy under Warsh and productivity outlook: Warsh signals lower rates ahead and urges focus on AI productivity gains rather than near-term inflation ticks. Core inflation may decline due to AI efficiency, supporting asset valuations long-term.

— Humanoid robots and robotics scaling: China is releasing $5k humanoids; US self-driving and robotics are accelerating. This $90 trillion build-out will sustain hardware demand for years; robotics adoption will likely begin in emergency and public-safety use cases first.

— Wait for Bitcoin to break above the 200-day moving average (~$70k) before increasing exposure; multiple headwinds (government AI regulation, debasement trade unwinding) are clearing, and lower equity volatility and Fed rate cuts could trigger a rotation into Bitcoin as institutions seek lower-volatility assets.

— Rotate out of mega-cap tech into broadening beneficiaries of AI adoption: healthcare, insurance, and enterprise software firms using agentic systems. Avoid chasing infrastructure plays; focus instead on companies capturing ROIC from AI agent deployment in workflows.

— Allocate to hardware and memory stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) and robotics supply chains over the next 5–10 years; the $90 trillion AI and robotics infrastructure buildout is just beginning, and commodity deflation (oil, energy) reduces future cost headwinds.