How Bitcoin Outpaces Stocks in the Next Decade | Jordi Visser

— Federal Reserve chaos, Jerome Powell's resistance to political pressure, and the Jackson Hole pivot toward rate cuts despite rising PMIs and elevated core CPI above 3%.

— AI's deflationary impact on the economy, particularly job losses for workers aged 22–25 in roles easily replaced by automation, with a documented 6% relative decline in job prospects.

— Rising PMIs coinciding with rate cuts for the first time this century—an unprecedented scenario that historically would trigger inflation concerns but may be neutralized by AI-driven deflation.

— Bitcoin's role as a belief asset with superior liquidity and Sharpe ratio, likely to outperform ideas (stocks) as the innovation cycle accelerates and public companies struggle to adapt.

— Private equity and private credit dominance over public markets; the possibility of a "lost decade" for U.S. equities driven by MAG-7 concentration and valuation multiples around 23x earnings.

— Young people's economic prospects, housing affordability, and the need for policy solutions—or Bitcoin as a hedge against systemic structural change over a five-year horizon.

— Bond yields down 13 basis points since the Jackson Hole pivot (before Cook controversy), signaling market conviction in rate cuts despite hot PMI data.

— Dollar weakening as Fed tilts toward cuts; Chinese yuan strengthening 1% month-to-date, consistent with global rate-cut expectations.

— Chinese stock market on fire; Visser closely monitors China as a macro signal.

— Consumer confidence declining; Conference Board indices on jobs plentiful vs. hard to get moving in a negative direction, pointing to unemployment rising toward 5–5.5%.

— S&P 500 valuation at ~23x earnings; historical precedent suggests forward real returns of +2% to –2% per decade at that multiple.

— Bitcoin and crypto market cap ~$4 trillion; Bitcoin ~60% of crypto market cap; Bitcoin still "peanuts" relative to gold ($20T) and global equities despite recent liquidity.

— Prioritize deflationary assets over traditional bonds: Visser recommends replacing bond allocations with Bitcoin and commodities as diversifiers, since government debasement erodes nominal bond returns; "diversify your diversifiers" by holding 60% equities, 40% alternatives (including Bitcoin).

— Monitor PMI for tide-lifting signals: If PMIs reach 60+, small-cap and non-tech outperformance typically follow; Bitcoin benefits from broadening risk appetite beyond the MAG-7. Watch for this inflection as a buy signal for non-concentrated portfolios.

— Young people should develop AI skills, avoid social media rabbit holes, and prepare for deflation over five years: Costs will fall; housing will become affordable; patience beats panic. Bitcoin serves as hope and a five-year store of value that will likely be higher.