#1185 Will Clemente On Bitcoin: Start Of The Next Bull Run?
4/10/2023 · 19 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin settled over 800 million cumulative transactions worth $107 trillion in Q1, with active addresses continuing to make higher lows in bear markets, indicating sustained adoption despite price volatility.
— Supply distribution is becoming more decentralized: entities holding under 10 BTC now control over 17% of supply (up from historical lows), while large accumulation by figures like Michael Saylor represents less than 1% concentration.
— Ordinals dramatically increased Bitcoin network usage in Q1, filling the mempool to its fullest in over a year, boosting transaction fees and miner revenue independent of market volatility—a positive signal for network security.
— The Puell multiple spike into capitulation territory in late 2022 marked miner stress similar to prior cycles; recovery indicates the worst is behind miners and reduced sell pressure ahead.
— Lightning Network capacity grew 50 million USD quarter-over-quarter and held up well despite broader market decline, signaling real utility for remittances and payments.
— Geopolitical narratives around de-dollarization and potential sovereign Bitcoin allocations by countries like UAE and Singapore represent an underestimated tailwind for Bitcoin adoption.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin up nearly 70% in Q1 2024, best-performing asset class of the year. Transaction fees increased throughout the quarter as mempool filled to highest levels in over a year. Puell multiple (USD value of daily miner issuance vs. 365-day average) spiked into "green zone" capitulation territory in late 2022–early 2023, historically marking cycle bottoms. Over 70% of Bitcoin is held by long-term holders; all-time high amount of supply has not moved in at least one to two years, creating lowest available circulating float ever. Halving event scheduled for 2024 will cut daily issuance from 900 to 450 BTC; historical pattern shows price appreciation post-halving, though derivatives positioning should be monitored for leverage risk ahead of the event.
Actionable insights
— Monitor derivatives data (funding rates and open interest) leading into the 2024 halving; elevated positioning could signal a "sell the news" event on a short-term basis, as occurred around COVID-related liquidations in 2020.
— The combination of lowest-ever circulating float and high long-term holder conviction (70% supply unchanged 1–2 years) suggests asymmetric upside if geopolitical or macroeconomic drivers trigger new institutional or sovereign demand, while downside may be cushioned by illiquidity-driven support.
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