#988 Will Clemente & Blake Davis On The Bull Case For Bitcoin Right Now
6/4/2022 · 40 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Supply shock metrics show strong accumulation dynamics with long-term holder supply reaching all-time highs relative to Bitcoin issuance, signaling potential future price appreciation once demand materializes.
— Bitcoin price consolidation between $36K–$45K reflects low exuberance in derivatives markets (basis compression) alongside strengthening on-chain fundamentals, suggesting fuel is laid but a catalyst is needed.
— Recent real-world events (Russia sanctions, Canada frozen accounts) are raising awareness of Bitcoin's censorship-resistant properties, though sovereign adoption remains limited by Bitcoin's current liquidity constraints.
— Realized price and newer market participant cost basis sit around $46K; reclaiming this level would signal momentum recovery and attract trend-following participants into a potential bull market.
— Derivatives metrics (perpetual basis, quarterly contango) show muted enthusiasm compared to 2020–2021, indicating capital is waiting rather than aggressively positioning for upside.
— On-chain cost basis broken below $53K signals loss of momentum; recovery above this level is required before broader euphoria is likely to return.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin consolidates between $36K–$45K with failed breakdown attempts. Perpetual basis in premium (gray) for over three months, indicating spot leading derivatives—a reversal of typical bull market behavior. Quarterly contango bleeding down despite flat price, showing reduced arbitrage interest and lack of derivatives exuberance. Realized price and newer participant cost basis clustered around $46K. On-chain cost basis at ~$46K after breaking below $53K resistance. Supply shock ratio at largest divergence since 2013–2014 compared to 2018 bear market, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. Stablecoin inflows and exchange outflows concentrated at entities with low historical selling tendency.
Actionable insights
— Monitor reclamation of $46K–$47K price level and on-chain cost basis as confluence with yearly open and moving averages; break above this zone would likely trigger momentum-based participants to re-enter and sustain uptrend.
— Watch supply shock metrics (liquid supply and long-term holder inflation-deflation ratio) as lagging indicators of probability; these measure fuel availability but require external catalysts (spot ETF approval, sovereign adoption, macro clarity) to drive demand.
— Diversify information sources beyond price action: track derivatives funding and basis daily, exchange flows weekly, and broader on-chain oscillators monthly; join collaborative communities or group chats with complementary expertise to synthesize signals more effectively.
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