France Is Burning

— France is experiencing violent civil unrest with 550,000+ protesters and thousands of arrests, starting with education strikes and expanding into a broad generational movement against rising costs of living.

— Peter Turchin's theory explains societal collapse through three ingredients: declining real wages, elite overproduction (too many educated people competing for scarce high-status positions), and governments unable to print their way out of fiscal crises.

— The euro zone's structural weakness is being deliberately exploited; Scott Bessent's sale of euros to support Japan signaled to global investors to dump European assets rather than U.S. treasuries, accelerating capital flight from France.

— France's debt spreads versus Germany have blown out to 150 basis points (widest since the euro crisis), its largest bank equity is down ~20% since summer, and the country cannot defend itself because it lacks its own central bank and currency.

— Real wage growth in France has collapsed from +2.7% annually (1951–1996) to near-zero and negative post-COVID, while youth unemployment exceeds 21% and only 43% of recent graduates land professional-track jobs versus 77% in 1983.

— Government spending and central bank money printing, not capitalism or free markets, drive asset inflation and wealth concentration; price controls and regulation cause the biggest price increases (housing +115%, college tuition +200%), while deregulated sectors (tech, phones) saw deflation.

— Bitcoin trading at $82,000; market cap $1.65 trillion; 35% below all-time high of $126,080 (set 378 days ago on October 6, 2025).

— MOVE Index (bond volatility) has climbed back above 100 after Bessent temporarily suppressed it below 100; systemic breaks occur around 130; elevated volatility threatens financial system collateral.

— EUR/JPY down 5% since Bessant sold euros to support Japan in summer; France-to-Germany debt spread widened 60 basis points in 12 months to 150 bps, the widest since the euro crisis itself.

— France's largest bank equity down ~20% since summer; foreign investors own 60% of France's government debt and 71% of bank debt, making France vulnerable to capital flight.

— Accumulate Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and generational conflict: Dollar-cost averaging with no-fee withdrawals to self-custody remains the cheapest way to acquire a hard asset uncorrelated to government spending and money printing.

— Monitor the MOVE Index and sovereign debt spreads weekly: Volatility in treasuries and widening credit spreads between developed nations are leading indicators of capital reallocation and systemic stress; they signal where capital will flee before political or social violence erupts.

— Europe's deterioration benefits America's reshoring agenda, but creates asymmetric risk for holders of euro exposure: France and the euro zone are likely to be sacrificed during this monetary reset; consider geographic and currency diversification away from euro-denominated assets.