#981 Will Clemente On If Bitcoin Just Hit The Bottom
5/28/2022 · 31 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin has declined 57% from its November 2021 all-time high, historically less severe than previous cycles' 80%+ drawdowns, suggesting potentially less extreme bottoming ahead.
— Multiple on-chain value metrics (realized price at $24K, 200-week moving average at $21K, price temperature lower bound at $21K) converge in the $20–24K range as potential accumulation zones.
— Momentum thresholds cluster around $47K (180-week EMA, 2022 yearly open, short-term holder cost basis); failure to reclaim this level in April signaled continued bear market weakness.
— Asian trading hour premiums have recently ticked to their second-highest level since summer 2021, historically a meaningful signal given Asia's track record of market timing.
— Bitcoin's all-time high 3-day correlation with the Nasdaq reflects current macro-driven conditions; this correlation is expected to be temporary as long-term adoption curves reassert.
— Cyclical bottoms typically attract hardcore crypto natives and contrarian macro bets; supply concentration to these conviction holders historically enables multi-year bull runs.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin trading sideways for ~two weeks in the $29–32K range. Monthly performance ranks among worst in history, exceeded only by 2018, March 2020, and summer 2021 drawdowns. Realized price sits at $24,000 (aggregate cost basis of all UTXOs on-chain); price below this level indicates all market participants underwater in aggregate. Short-term holder cost basis has declined to ~$45,038 as capitulation proceeds. 200-week moving average at ~$21,000 has historically caught every cyclical bottom "to the tick." Meyer multiple (price vs. 200-day MA) near historically generational buy thresholds seen in 2014–15, 2018, March 2020, and summer 2021. Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq hit an all-time high on the 3-day timeframe last week.
Actionable insights
— Long-term holders should dollar-cost-average at current levels (lower 10–25th percentile on many indicators) and deploy dry powder in the $20–24K range, historically a "generational buy" zone where realized price and moving averages converge.
— Macro conditions dominate near-term price action; focus on high timeframe analysis and building convictions rather than trading short-term ranges, given Fed-driven volatility rendering technical lines unreliable at lower timeframes.
— Monitor Asian trading hour premiums closely—if they approach summer 2021 peaks, it may signal meaningful accumulation by historically astute regional participants; current premium is already at its second-highest level since mid-2021.
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