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The Hurdle Rate

Building on Digital Credit | The Hurdle Rate Podcast | Ep. 72

9/1/2026 · 63 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

Jeff Walton shared observations from Bitcoin Asia conference, highlighting rapid innovation in structured finance and digital credit markets, particularly in Asia where adoption moves faster than the US.

Strategy acquired 4,603 Bitcoin for $370 million and reached 0% net leverage, resuming Bitcoin purchases after months of capital accumulation; Strive acquired additional Bitcoin, bringing holdings to 23,156 BTC.

MSCI's proposed exclusion of digital asset treasury companies would effectively classify MSCI as an investment adviser, contradicting its claim to be a passive index provider and raising regulatory concerns.

Long-end US Treasury yields are rising and will likely continue higher regardless of Federal Reserve action because the economy operates under fiscal dominance, not monetary dominance.

Bitcoin is establishing itself as the fastest horse in a macro environment never before seen in its history, with potential for significant appreciation if fiscal dynamics continue as predicted.

The podcast crew warned against short-term trading mentality during bull markets, emphasizing the need for foundational bullishness to weather volatility and capture potential multi-year moves.

Market & price signals

Bitcoin moved from low 60s to $80k over recent weeks with Strategy sidelined as a buyer, demonstrating demand extends beyond corporate treasury accumulation. Japan's 10-year bond yield rose above 3% for the first time since 1996. US 10-year Treasury yields pushed to 4.8%, highest since January 2024, with markets expecting a September Fed rate hike. STRC traded above par after leverage event; SEDA achieved stability near par. Bitcoin outperforming gold recently. Strive increased Bitcoin holdings 14.4% in two weeks and 8.4% week-over-week. Strategy holds $845 million Bitcoin with $6.71 billion USD cash on balance sheet. MSCI trades at 270th largest company globally with negative $2.7 billion net assets (2.3x leverage); Strategy ranks 240th with 27x more liquid assets than MSCI.

Actionable insights

Position defensively for volatility to the upside by maintaining foundational conviction in Bitcoin's long-term structural case rather than trading short-term price moves; the macro backdrop is unprecedented and moves will be fast and difficult to time.

Monitor fiscal dominance dynamics and long-end Treasury yields as the primary driver of Bitcoin's macro backdrop; central bank actions are secondary to Treasury debt dynamics and monetary debasement running above 7% annually.

Advocate for MSCI to maintain passive index principles or face regulatory classification as an investment adviser; corporate Bitcoin holdings via index inclusion create structural tailwinds for corporate adoption and retail retirement exposure.

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