#1567 Jordi Visser | Why Bitcoin & Stocks Are At All-Time Highs
6/28/2025 · 45 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— AI acceleration and agentic reasoning as the next inflection point in the AI investment cycle, moving beyond chatbots to digital employees and humanoid robotics by end of 2025.
— Stock market reaching all-time highs despite economic headwinds; MAG7 stocks driving 55% of earnings growth while S&P 493 faces structural challenges.
— Leading Economic Index (LEI) showing recession signals for eight months straight, yet profit margins expanding due to AI-driven efficiencies and reduced hiring needs.
— Younger generations (age 25 and under) increasingly distrustful of capitalism; socialism gaining political appeal as career paths and housing affordability collapse.
— Federal Reserve independence under pressure from Trump administration; government pressure likely to push rate cuts despite inflation control mandate.
— Bitcoin as ultimate hedge against monetary debasement and wealth transfer between generations; gold and real assets all appreciating together as fiat confidence erodes.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin, gold, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all hitting new all-time highs. Micron stock doubled from ~$60 to near $130 in recent period. Nike up 15% as investors hunt for laggards after tariff fears subside. M2 money supply growing; dollar declined again this week amid Trump pressure on Fed independence. Leading Economic Index negative for eight consecutive months (range: −1% to −7%), historically predictive of recession. Year-over-year nonfarm payroll growth at 1.08%, suggesting labor market softening. Housing prices showing negative month-over-month movement (aside from 2022, rare outside recessions). Bonds in bear market since 2019; Barclays Aggregate unchanged to down globally.
Actionable insights
— Exposure to AI beneficiaries beyond NVIDIA: monitor memory (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) and power infrastructure (Exxon, Chevron) as bottlenecks shift from compute to energy and storage for reasoning-level AI workloads.
— Barbell portfolio approach: hold MAG7 and high-growth private tech companies (which scale with minimal hiring), while avoiding overleveraged S&P 493 companies that cannot compete on revenue growth and face debt refinancing pressure.
— Bitcoin allocation increasingly important for younger demographics and as hedge against eroding Fed independence and government-driven monetary expansion; real assets (gold, real estate, Bitcoin) all appreciating together as fiat confidence deteriorates.
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