Liquidity Is The Moat | Hurdle Rate Podcast | Ep. 71
8/25/2026 · 52 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Strive acquired 1,110 Bitcoin for $81.5 million, bringing total holdings to 21,356 BTC; Strategy raised $2 billion in common stock, achieving 0% net leverage and holding ~4% of total Bitcoin supply.
— Bitcoin traded from $64,000 to $80,000 and back to $78,000 during the week, marking a return of significant volatility and renewed market interest.
— Strive and Strategy are uniquely positioned with two publicly traded securities (SEDA and ASST) backed by Bitcoin, creating a rare structural moat in terms of liquidity and capital markets access.
— Short interest in SEDA has declined ~40% since mid-June as controlled burn strategy created urgency for shorts to cover during weak market conditions.
— Macro backdrop includes structural dollar weakness (DXY decline from 100 to low 70s expected), Treasury yield intervention via buybacks, and potential for yield curve control—conditions never before experienced in Bitcoin's history.
— Management is underwriting downside risk while positioning for a "grand slam scenario" where Bitcoin becomes the fastest horse amid dollar debasement, driven by hunt for scarcity and macro policy shifts.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin moved from ~$64,000 to a high of $80,000 then retreated to ~$78,000. Strategy and Strive both saw record trading volumes, with ASST reaching $289 million in daily volume. SEDA trades at roughly 2% daily turnover of market cap (turning over the entire cap in ~50 days), compared to 0.15% for other preferred equities. Management views the 10-year Treasury yield potentially testing levels above 5.25% (unseen since 2007) as a market stress test before coordinated Treasury/Fed intervention. Bitcoin versus gold ratio is a key macro lens; leadership believes Bitcoin has not yet reclaimed the role of "fastest horse" relative to gold from the 2021 cycle, suggesting the real bull market may be just beginning.
Actionable insights
— Zoom out and adopt a long-term horizon; management warns against one-week or one-month time horizons given amplified volatility, even though macro backdrop is historically favorable.
— Compare Bitcoin's performance versus gold rather than the dollar to assess true bull market leadership; nominal all-time highs in dollar terms do not confirm bull market if Bitcoin underperforms gold during the same period.
— Position for structural dollar weakness and potential yield curve control intervention as a multi-year macro tailwind, but continue to underwrite downside scenarios (e.g., Bitcoin at $40,000) to ensure responsible risk management.
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