The Fed Held, BITA Launched, STRC is Stressed

— World Cup 2024 is providing a welcome counternarrative to negative stereotypes about America, with international visitors surprised by the country's infrastructure, culture, and friendliness; Canada achieved its first-ever World Cup win.

— Bitcoin sentiment has deteriorated significantly, with price around $62K and widespread expectation of a four-year-cycle-driven bottom in Q3–Q4 2026 at the high 40s to low 50s.

— The 2022 bear market felt more explainable due to Fed tightening, inflation, QT, M2 contraction, and crypto collapses; the current drawdown lacks equivalent macro justification, fueling debate over whether the four-year cycle is real or reflexive.

— Whale and miner selling, AI stock flows diverting capital, and reflexive belief in the four-year cycle are cited as the primary drivers of the sell-off.

— Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting held rates unchanged; half of Fed officials expect at least one rate hike by year-end; PCE inflation is not expected to return to 2% target until 2028.

— BlackRock launched a new income ETF targeting 15–25% yield while capturing at least 70% of Bitcoin's upside; Strategy's preferred stock (Stretch) fell to $80–$88 after trading near par, triggered by liquidation cascades from levered positions, though the company itself remains solvent.

— Differentiate between structural macro factors driving a bear market versus reflexive, calendar-driven explanations; the current sell-off's lack of obvious catalysts (unlike 2022's inflation, rate hikes, and crypto collapses) suggests investors should question whether capitulation is truly imminent or whether the four-year cycle is self-fulfilling and may be pricing in prematurely.

— Swan's new RBX (Real Bitcoin Exchange) product offers a tax-efficient way to convert spot Bitcoin ETF holdings (especially GBTC) into self-custodied or institutional-grade custody Bitcoin while deferring capital gains taxes and eliminating annual management fees; this is relevant for long-term holders of GBTC or similar ETFs with significant unrealized gains who want direct Bitcoin ownership.