#665 Bitcoin Whales Are Buying Like CRAZY w/ Will Clemente
9/18/2021 · 22 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— On-chain volume clusters reveal distinct price support and resistance zones where capital has accumulated; current trading between $44K–$50K represents the largest volume bar since $9.5K, indicating substantial capital inflows at these levels.
— Liquid supply shock ratio shows coins moving from highly liquid entities (market makers) to illiquid long-term holders, signaling accumulation by stronger hands over the past two months.
— Whales excluding exchanges have added 184,699 BTC (~$8.8 billion) since July 17th, demonstrating aggressive institutional buying while coins flow off exchanges at scale.
— Long-term holder supply and coins unmoved for 30+ days both hit all-time highs, while younger coins dominate spending activity—behavior resembling late-stage 2020 market dynamics.
— Futures open interest recovered ~$1 billion from last week's liquidation cascade but remains $3 billion below pre-selloff levels; funding rates still depressed, requiring caution on further leverage buildup.
— Price structure near $50K breakeven signals potential move toward $53K–$60K resistance cluster; clearing the monthly open and $50K psychological level would confirm bullish technical setup.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin trades between $44K–$50K with rejection off $53K–$60K resistance cluster last week. On-chain volume concentration at current levels ($48K reference) is the largest since $9.5K, suggesting robust institutional accumulation. Whales accumulated $8.8 billion in BTC over two months; 26,150 BTC (~$1.25 billion) moved off exchanges in the past week alone. Supply metrics resemble October 2020 conditions that preceded a 500% rally. Hash rate has recovered ~50–55% from earlier lows but remains 20–30% below all-time highs; miner profitability slightly constrained but offset by capital market access. Analyst remains confident in setup for "exciting next couple of months" but stopped short of predicting blow-off top.
Actionable insights
— Monitor price action above the $50K psychological level and previous monthly high; breaking above with confirmation would target the $53K–$60K resistance cluster, indicating continuation into Q1.
— Watch funding rates and futures open interest closely—if both spike sharply above recent levels, short-term liquidation risk increases; current depressed rates suggest limited leverage, reducing immediate downside threat.
— Accumulate on weakness given extreme on-chain illiquidity metrics (90% supply unmoved 30+ days, whales buying aggressively); supply dynamics resemble pre-bull market conditions, though short-term volatility remains possible.
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