#653 Is Bitcoin About To Take Off?! w/ Will Clemente
9/4/2021 · 29 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Will Clemente, a 19-year-old finance major, has taken a semester off from East Carolina University to focus on Bitcoin analysis during an anticipated bull run in Q4.
— On-chain volume shows four distinct price clusters: a pre-bull market cluster (28.5% of supply at $3K–$11K), a consolidation cluster (15.5% at $30K–$40K), the current cluster (9.6% at $45K–$50K), and a distribution cluster (7% at $54K–$60K).
— Supply shock indicators—including liquid supply RSI, illiquid supply ratios, and exchange balances—are flashing bullish signals similar to late 2019 and late 2020, suggesting strong hand accumulation and limited selling pressure.
— Long-term holders show no signs of capitulation; spent output age bands indicate minimal exit liquidity, contrasting sharply with 2017–2018 behavior when 45% of six-month-plus outputs were sold.
— Exchange inflows remain negative (coins leaving exchanges), with buying pressure visible on Coinbase and selling activity on Binance, suggesting Western accumulation alongside Eastern liquidation or speculative demand.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin recently broke above $50,000. Clemente identifies $54,000 as the next key resistance (marking the $1 trillion market cap threshold and on-chain volume gap), followed by $58,000–$60,000 as the final technical resistance. Above $60,000, he sees "blue skies" and potential price discovery toward $90,000–$100,000 by year-end if the "delta top mean" breaks. Miner profitability is declining as hash rate returns to the network, and miners have sold ~1,700 coins in the past 10 days—normal profit-taking behavior. A volatility squeeze entered five days ago is expected to resolve within one week, potentially in conjunction with supply shock impulse resolution. Clemente rates his bullishness at 8.5–9 on a 1–10 scale through year-end, maintaining a prior target of $100,000+ by December, with an upside model reaching ~$180,000.
Actionable insights
— Monitor the $54,000–$60,000 resistance band closely; a break above $60,000 would confirm renewed bull market momentum and signal potential acceleration toward $90K–$100K by year-end.
— Track long-term holder behavior via spent output age bands and exchange flows; sustained holding (vs. capitulation-style 45% exits seen in 2017–2018) suggests the supply shock thesis remains valid and downside risk is limited near-term.
— Watch derivative metrics (open interest and funding rates) for signs of leverage-driven pullback, particularly if open interest spikes relative to market cap; near-term 15–20% corrections are normal even within the broader bull case.
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