#690 The Bitcoin Bulls Are Running Through 60k! w/ Will Clemente
10/16/2021 · 31 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin back at $60,000 with supply squeeze thesis now underway; only 0.68% of circulating supply has last moved above current price levels, indicating minimal overhead resistance.
— Futures basis spread rising to 14.18% annualized yield, incentivizing capital inflow to spot markets and potentially drawing U.S. institutional capital once futures ETF launches.
— Large transaction volume (particularly OTC activity) surging while retail adoption metrics lag, suggesting whale accumulation rather than broad-based participation.
— Long-term holder to short-term holder ratio at all-time highs, historically preceding major bull market rallies; prior cycles show ratio peaks in green zone before reversal.
— Futures margin increasingly collateralized with stablecoins rather than Bitcoin, reducing downside convexity and limiting cascading liquidations on price corrections.
— Valkyrie Bitcoin futures ETF approval announced during episode; unclear if spot ETF will follow or if multiple competing products will fragment demand.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin trading near $60,000 following approval of Valkyrie futures ETF. Clemente's top model suggests $112,000 by cycle peak (conservative), while Willy Woo's model targets $193,000. Supply metrics suggest bull market may extend into Q1 2025. Exchange inflows at May 2021 peak preceded major correction; currently monitoring for similar red flags. Revenue per hash at elevated levels despite increased competition from hashrate recovery. Long-term holder accumulation patterns resemble October 2020 (before 500%+ rally) more than prior cycle tops.
Actionable insights
— Monitor the liquid supply shock ratio and MVRV Z-score for signs of market overheating as price approaches all-time highs; these on-chain metrics have historically flagged tops before retail capitulation.
— Track whether futures basis spread continues expanding above current 14% level—higher spreads draw more institutional capital into spot via cash-and-carry arbitrage, amplifying upside momentum.
— Watch for announcements from publicly traded companies adding Bitcoin to balance sheets during upcoming earnings season; corporate adoption combined with ETF demand could materially accelerate price discovery beyond model predictions.
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