Bitcoin, Liquidity, And The Coming Inflection Point | Jeff Ross

— The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in recession since late 2022 and remains contractionary, contradicting expectations for a 2025 economic boom; this weakness, not liquidity issues alone, has driven Bitcoin lower.

— The four-year Bitcoin cycle is effectively dead because the broader economy is no longer following that pattern; a recovery depends on real economic improvement, not historical precedent.

— The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and 100% depreciation rules taking effect in 2026 will allow miners, manufacturers, and other sectors to write off capital expenses immediately, freeing up cash flow and tax burden in ways that should accelerate investment.

— Global capital is withdrawing from U.S. assets as the world moves away from dollar dominance; the BRICS nations are stockpiling gold and ditching U.S. Treasuries and equities.

— Japan's bond yield shock and yen carry trade unwinding are flushing out trillions in leverage globally, creating ripple effects across Western markets and leaving the U.S. to "fend for itself."

— The U.S. is strategically pulling back from global military overreach (NATO, Middle East) and pivoting to Western Hemisphere focus, signaling acceptance that competition with China and Russia cannot be won militarily.

— Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $80,000–$93,000 range due to a combination of weak U.S. manufacturing PMI, dollar strength (rising DXY), and leverage unwinding (yen carry trade, October tariff announcement liquidations).

— The ISM manufacturing PMI and new orders data are the strongest leading indicators for Bitcoin; when manufacturing PMI breaks above 50 and rises toward 55–60, Bitcoin should accelerate sharply.

— Gold has outperformed stocks (S&P 500 divided by gold) over the past two years, and this trend is expected to accelerate as reserve currency confidence erodes.

— Bitcoin currently trades in "deep value" territory; no cyclical peak signal has appeared in 2024–2025 for the first time since 2010, suggesting a potential bottom is near.

— If Congress announces a strategic Bitcoin reserve or the economy takes off in Q2–Q3 2026, Bitcoin could quickly move to $150,000–$200,000; otherwise, expect a grind higher rather than explosive moves.

— Watch the ISM manufacturing PMI and new orders data closely as the primary leading indicator; sustained acceleration above 50 toward 55–60 should signal the start of Bitcoin's next leg up in mid-to-late 2026.

— Position for 2026 tax advantages: miners and manufacturers waiting to buy capital equipment should see massive cash flow relief from 100% depreciation rules in January 2026, which should drive both mining hash rate increases and potential corporate/government Bitcoin purchases.

— Expect Bitcoin to significantly underperform hard assets (gold, commodities, industrial metals) and government-picked winners (AI, semiconductors, rare earths, military-industrial) until either liquidity becomes more abundant or the government explicitly picks Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.