Guest
Jeff Ross
Fed Regime Change, Bitcoin Cycles, AI’s Real Impact | Jeff Ross, Joe Carlasare, HODL
- The Federal Reserve has removed forward guidance and adopted a more secretive policy approach similar to Alan Greenspan's era, signaling a shift toward fiscal dominance where Treasury spending becomes the primary economic driver. - Three dominant currency blocs are likely to form globally: the US dollar system, a China-backed gold standard, and Bitcoin as a decentralized contingency. - Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy have underperformed Bitcoin by 60% since November 2024; the recent small Bitcoin sale was a deliberate narrative violation to signal flexibility with lenders. - Bitcoin cycles appear to be weakening or dead as a predictable pattern; current market moves differ significantly from past cycles, with less volatile blow-off tops and more gradual drawdowns. - AI adoption remains in early stages with low actual usage rates outside tech circles; job displacement concerns are overstated, as AI tools create new categories of employment (cybersecurity, system architecture). - The leverage-to-OG-status narrative is false; using leveraged MSTR positions has destroyed retail portfolios (one 2X leveraged ETF fell from $780 to $9), while plain Bitcoin accumulation near the 200-week moving average has historically rewarded holders.
This Is The End Of The Dollar System | Jeff Ross
- Bitcoin technicals: Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hold above the 100-day moving average since October (rejected at ~$97k in January, currently ~$75k). Guest expects potential capitulation toward $50–60k range before sustainable recovery. - Macro-economic policy shift: Trump administration in "war footing" mentality with massive fiscal spending on military, manufacturing, energy, and rare earths rather than austerity. This will expand the liquidity blob into the real economy. - Three economic "burners": (1) Liquidity size and direction; (2) ISM Manufacturing PMI recovery from unprecedented post-WWII contraction; (3) Return of bank lending and leverage into markets. - Geopolitical escalation & World War III thesis: Guest argues we're already in WWIII (proxy wars, fragmentation). Predicts U.S. may occupy Karg Island in Persian Gulf to control Iran's oil as leverage in multipolar world shift. - Structural inflation 3–6%, with deflationary AI/robotics headwinds: Wartime spending will drive inflation; automation simultaneously creates deflationary pressure but displaces workers, causing social instability. - AI/jobless recovery crisis: Technology is eliminating white-collar and blue-collar jobs simultaneously. Without redistribution mechanism (UBI or universal basic services), desperation and civil unrest will escalate.