The Berkshires of Bitcoin | True North Podcast | Ep. 80

— Strategy (MSTR) acquired ~900 BTC this week using USD cash reserves (not from share sales), bringing holdings to 846,000 BTC worth ~$71 billion; STRC buybacks continue as the primary capital deployment tool.

— Strive (ASST) balance sheet grew from 24,500 to 26,355 BTC over two weeks; net capital increased $341 million to $2.5 billion with 17 years of dividend coverage on preferred stock.

— Digital credit fundamentally reshapes risk distribution by eliminating principal repayment and tail risk, shifting probabilistic outcomes rightward compared to traditional credit instruments.

— Berkshire Hathaway parallels: Strategy is adding capital ~1.5x faster than Berkshire's best decade ($12B annually vs. $8B), building a 200-week moving average framework for risk management and future leverage decisions.

— Four-year Bitcoin cycle drawdowns are compressing (50% recent vs. 70% prior vs. 85–90% earlier), suggesting structural market improvements from ETF distribution and credit capital flows.

— Derivatives data shows large open interest in ASST warrants (211k contracts near October expiration), MSTR calls (714k contracts), and STRC puts (concentrated in December); warrant strike prices and gap analysis suggest sophisticated hedging activity.

— Monitor ASST warrant exercise through October 13 deadline; $700M in warrant capital at $85k BTC would add ~8,235 BTC and reduce amplification from 45% to 35%, creating capacity for ~$550–600M in new SEDA issuance while maintaining amplification.

— Compare relative value of digital credit instruments (STRC, SEDA) to traditional bank preferreds using liquidity, yield, and dividend structure; marginal capital should flow toward more liquid, asset-backed instruments as yield spreads persist.

— Consider buying downside protection on digital credit if holding for 6+ months (e.g., $99 puts on STRC at December expiration) as options market develops more strikes and deeper liquidity; current $95–$100 gap suggests inefficiency.