True North Podcast
True North is a decentralized collective of investors, analysts, and capital structure experts exploring the outer edges of Bitcoin, digital credit, collateralized finance and m…
Recent episodes
MSTR Sells Bitcoin to Fund Dividend | True North Podcast | Ep. 73
- Strategy's Q2 balance sheet showed 11% Bitcoin growth with 6% share dilution, resulting in a 4% increase in Bitcoin per share, demonstrating positive carry despite short-term market volatility. - Strategy sold $215 million of Bitcoin at ~$60,000 average price to cover dividend obligations on preferred equities; the sale highlighted Bitcoin's liquidity advantage versus traditional assets. - Debt management improved significantly: Strategy retired $1.5 billion of convertible debt in Q2 (18% reduction), lowering cliff maturity exposure, while perpetual preferred equity grew to $15.4 billion. - Interest expense on preferred equities now represents 3.37% of Bitcoin holdings annually—a carry rate that remains attractive if Bitcoin appreciates above M2 money supply growth (~7.5%). - Bitcoin-backed loans face adverse selection problems: lenders struggle to justify dollar lending against Bitcoin volatility when buying Bitcoin directly offers better risk-adjusted returns; perpetual preferred equity structured around corporation taking volatility risk instead. - Capital markets are evolving to treat Bitcoin as digital capital; duration matching between perpetual Bitcoin assets and perpetual liabilities (preferred equity) creates sustainable structures versus short-duration loan mismatches.
The Stress Test | True North Podcast | Ep. 72
- Strategy announced a new capital framework with five components: USD reserve policy ($2.55B cash target), revised STRC dividend policy (rate increased to 12%), digital credit securities repurchase program, common stock repurchase program, and BTC monetization program (up to $1.25B capacity). - Balance sheet health: debt-to-asset ratio improved to 8% after the capital raise; Bitcoin price would need to fall to $4,900 for total assets to fall below debt obligations (currently trading ~$61,000). - Strategy raised $1.1B in fresh capital in a single week despite Bitcoin weakness, demonstrating continued access to capital markets and reducing near-term liquidity concerns around preferred dividend payments. - Perpetual preferred equity instruments (STRC, SDRK, SDRD) are being framed as a new asset class and potential building block for future CLO (collateralized loan obligation) structures, opening access to institutional capital pools. - Short interest and leverage dynamics: retail and institutional actors took leveraged positions on digital credit instruments, leading to weakness and liquidations; borrow rates on SEDA spiked from ~4% to 60% week-over-week as shorts accumulated. - Strategy held 847,363 Bitcoin as of the announcement and remains on pace to reach 1 million Bitcoin by October–November 2026; Q1 2026 was the third-best acquisition quarter in company history.
The Long Game | True North Podcast | Ep. 71
- Bitcoin price volatility and technical analysis: Price dropped to $59k intraday before recovering to ~$61k, currently near the 200-week moving average historically considered a strong entry point. MSTR trading at $95–99 range with 1.64x beta to Bitcoin, amplifying both gains and losses. - Balance sheet strength and capital structure: Strive holds $51B in assets with only $6.7B debt, providing 28 years of dividend coverage. Even a 50% Bitcoin drop would leave $20B net capital. Design deliberately avoids forced selling during volatility through perpetual preferred equity rather than convertible bonds. - Digital credit instruments (STRC, SEDA): Volatility-driven by traditional market weakness and leveraged liquidations in tradfi, not DeFi loops. STRC short interest at $200M, SEDA at $58M. Instruments function as credit-wrapped equity paying daily dividends; core thesis remains intact despite price dislocation from par. - Capital markets integration and institutional demand: Multi-strategy hedge fund confirmed buying Bitcoin exposure exclusively through securities (MSTR, iBIT, options) due to custody and operational constraints. Approximately 10 million finance professionals in US; billions in capital cannot directly purchase Bitcoin. - Long-term positioning and "IPO moment": 120k Bitcoin from dormant wallets (5+ years old) distributed over eight months as early holders capitalize into mega-cap IPOs (SpaceX, etc.). Higher institutional liquidity and infrastructure today vs. 2021 peak supports orderly distribution. - Regulatory clarity and Basel framework: Current Basel III risk-weighting for Bitcoin at 1,250% prevents bank holdings; improvement in basal or "clarity act" would unlock institutional adoption.
The Launch Pad | True North Podcast | Ep. 70
- STRC price decline and cash reserve reduction: Strategy retired $1.5 billion of convertible bonds by drawing down its cash reserve, removing a cliff maturity but pressuring STRC to trade below par ($89 vs. $100). Market participants are calling for a death spiral, but analysts argue the balance sheet remains healthy. - Digital credit as a Bitcoin bridge: STRC and SETA are designed as professional preferred equities that enable adoption by offering yield and stability without requiring users to hold volatile Bitcoin directly. They serve as a financial rail for scaling Bitcoin into traditional capital markets. - Capital markets surge in AI and aerospace: SpaceX IPO raised $85.7 billion (largest in history) at a $2.4 trillion valuation; Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, and Nvidia are raising tens of billions for AI infrastructure. This capital rotation is temporarily draining liquidity from other markets, including digital credit instruments. - STRC as a Bitcoin derivative: Despite marketing as preferred equity, STRC trades as a Bitcoin derivative with 60–80% price attribution to Bitcoin and MSTR. Volatility is elevated but comparable to other high-yield credit instruments when adjusted for yield-to-risk. - Volume and liquidity as moat: STRC trades $366 million daily average vs. IBIT's $1.8 billion, but STRC has 30% more liquidity per Bitcoin held. MSTR trades $2.6 billion daily, making it the dominant Bitcoin leverage vehicle in the market. - Bitcoin's path amid AI boom: Long-term, Bitcoin benefits from AI-driven wealth creation and efficiency gains, but near-term capital is chasing AI IPOs and compute. The narrative shift back to Bitcoin may come in 6–12 months once these capital events resolve.
Strategy Sells Bitcoin, so what? w/ Adam Livingston | True North Podcast | Ep. 69
- Terminology & taxonomy: The hosts defend calling these instruments "digital credit"—not strictly debt, but equity analyzed through credit concepts that have existed for centuries. The term fits the definition of "provision of money/services with expectation of future payment." - STRC price volatility & FUD: STRC traded down to $94.70 from $99.84 post-record date, triggering fears of "death spirals." The hosts show this is normal dividend-harvesting behavior; volume spikes 5–6× before record dates and trails off after, creating predictable liquidity windows. - Balance sheet health & capital raising: Microstrategy has raised $143 million per trading day in 2026 and holds 843,000 Bitcoin with no debt. Monthly dividend obligation (~$100M) is only 0.19% of May's trading volume; annual obligation is 0.02% of estimated Bitcoin trading volume (~$7.3 trillion/year). - Bitcoin sales math: If forced to sell Bitcoin to cover dividends at current Bitcoin price, Microstrategy would sell only 1,535 BTC/month (3.1% of stack annually)—an infinitesimal portion of Bitcoin's daily trading volume. Raising rates to 12.5% or 13% adds only $26M/year. - Residual value & incentive structures: Critics claiming MSTR common equity trades to zero ignore call-option dynamics and liquidity. Even at severely bearish Bitcoin prices (never seen in history), incentives remain for buyback and dividend payment. - DeFi and digital credit future: Saturn and Apex protocols are building on top of STRC/SEDA, currently ~5% of issuance. Daily dividends (starting in 13 days at Strive) will unlock new use cases and DeFi composability.